Group USA was by no means going to make it by means of the Olympics with out getting examined by any person. Certain sufficient, the third time was almost the allure for Serbia. After getting blown out by Group USA in each an exhibition and group-play sport, Serbia very almost upset the favorites earlier than getting defeated, 95-91, right away basic semifinal on Thursday. Now the Individuals can breathe a sigh of aid… or can they?

France would not fairly have Serbia’s top-end expertise. Nikola Jokic is the most effective participant on this planet. Victor Wembanyama might get there some day, however he is not but. It hasn’t been fairly as constant as Serbia had been both. France very almost misplaced to Japan in group play, and would not nonetheless be enjoying if it had. However large wins over Germany and Canada have France, the host nation, within the gold medal sport searching for vengeance towards Group USA after shedding on this similar matchup in Tokyo three summers in the past.

Each groups are 40 minutes away from profitable the gold medal. Listed here are the three greatest questions heading into the most important sport of the Olympics.

When France received silver in Tokyo, Rudy Gobert was the face of the crew. He is coming off of an NBA season by which he received Defensive Participant of the 12 months and got here three wins in need of the NBA Finals. However after an uneven set of exhibitions and an underwhelming efficiency in group play, France determined to play smaller. Gobert has performed solely eight minutes within the knockout stage up to now. He claimed he had surgical procedure on his finger earlier than the quarterfinal sport towards Canada. His coach, Vincent Collet, stated he did not. He simply needed to play a smaller lineup. Given how properly gamers like Guerschon Yabusele and Mathias Lessort have performed in his stead, it is exhausting to argue with the outcomes.

After all, Group USA is a special animal. It is exhausting to think about Yabusele dominating LeBron James bodily as simply as he did the frontlines for Germany and Canada. France is not an awesome taking pictures crew. It has made 15-of-55 makes an attempt from deep up to now two video games. It is simply exhausting to think about France profitable a shootout with Group USA like Serbia almost did. The trail to profitable might be going to come back on the defensive finish.

The best situation for a France victory would most likely contain utterly walling off the rim with Wembanyama and Gobert, after which hoping that Group USA has a nasty taking pictures day from deep. That is not precisely possible, however it’s believable. It turns into a lot more durable if Gobert is not enjoying. For all the offensive match points he presents, he is nonetheless the second-best participant on this crew. He most likely has to play some form of significant position for France to have an opportunity on this sport.

2. What adjustments will Steve Kerr make?

Regardless of all the consternation about Jayson Tatum’s position, he is solely been held out of two video games, and each have been towards Serbia. He began two of Group USA’s different three video games and performed 20 bench minutes towards Brazil. It is solely attainable that Steve Kerr simply views Serbia, particularly, as a nasty matchup for Tatum. That may make some sense. Serbia is heavy on guards and massive males, however not wings. Tatum’s shot has been a bit shaky for Group USA, and with out it, his place within the offense is a bit unsure. With LeBron James and Kevin Durant enjoying the lion’s share of minutes at ahead, Kerr simply won’t have seen a wise position for Tatum towards Serbia.

After all, it is exhausting to take an excessive amount of away from Group USA’s different video games. Brazil, South Sudan and Puerto Rico have been weak opponents that Group USA anticipated to defeat comfortably. We do not know if Kerr views Tatum as a nasty matchup for Serbia, or just would not belief him sufficient to play him in any large sport when it is shut as a result of Group USA’s large video games up to now have solely actually come towards Serbia.

Along with the Tatum query, it seems like Kerr may also make a big change in his beginning 5 on Saturday. Shams Charania reviews Durant will begin instead of Jrue Vacation towards France.

Kerr himself has talked about not eager to play 11 gamers, and gold medal video games are likely to tighten rotations. Greg Popovich used 9 gamers towards France in Tokyo, for example, and Durant performed all however 5 minutes in that sport. Mike Krzyzewski used solely 10 within the 2008 gold medal sport towards Spain, and whereas he used all 12 within the 2012 rematch, Andre Iguodala, James Harden and Anthony Davis solely acquired token minutes. Realistically, Kerr might be going to rely most closely on six or seven gamers with just a few extra getting some spot minutes off the bench. If Tatum cannot see the ground, that shall be among the many tales of the sport whether or not or not Group USA wins gold.

3. Can this be the opening act of Wemby’s legendary profession?

Victor Wembanyama is 20. It isn’t cheap to count on him to guide the French crew to victory over probably the most gifted groups ever assembled. It would not be cheap to count on that out of anybody given the expertise disparity right here.

However Wembanyama is not simply anybody. He might solely be 20, however he’s most likely essentially the most tantalizing 20-year-old within the historical past of basketball. Gamers of his caliber often have a few unprecedented feats on their resumes, and whereas none have overcome odds fairly so long as these, there have been different younger gamers to defy the normal getting older curve with achievements sometimes meant for veterans. Magic Johnson received Finals MVP as a rookie, for example, and Wes Unseld received regular-season MVP.

Wembanyama has nothing to lose right here. No person goes responsible him if he cannot overcome a roster stuffed with superstars. But when Wembanyama grows into the form of participant we count on him to change into, he’s going to have just a few unpredictably unbelievable feats to look again on. This has an opportunity to be a crowning achievement, an official declaration to the basketball world that he has arrived, and has maybe ushered in a brand new period of French basketball dominance. The highest two picks within the 2024 NBA Draft have been French. They’ve the expertise to compete with Group USA for years to come back. In all probability, this sport is a loss that Wembanyama ultimately seems again on as motivation for future victories. But when he can pull this off, it could cap probably the most spectacular rookie years any basketball participant has ever had and set him up for maybe essentially the most promising profession we have ever seen.