Gregg Popovich might be having snort concerning the dilemma the Los Angeles Lakers are dealing with proper now. The San Antonio Spurs coach who, by all accounts, holds a selected distaste for the group he has confronted seven occasions within the postseason, by chance steered his everlasting rivals into an iceberg when his younger group surprised the Denver Nuggets on the second-to-last recreation of the common season. That victory knocked the Nuggets from the highest spot within the Western Convention to second. Now, ought to the Lakers defeat the New Orleans Pelicans in Tuesday’s Western Convention play-in recreation, they’d face the defending champs within the first spherical of the playoffs.

If the Lakers do certainly face the Nuggets within the first spherical, they may lose that sequence. Forgive the knowledge behind that assertion, but it surely’s primarily based in historical past. The Lakers have misplaced eight video games in a row to Denver. Each recreation follows roughly the identical trajectory. The Nuggets play with their meals for 40 minutes or so earlier than deciding to eat it and stomp the Lakers within the last body. The Lakers acquired outscored by 15 factors in 11 clutch minutes towards Denver in final 12 months’s Western Convention finals. They have been outscored by 17 factors in seven clutch minutes towards them this common season. Wanting a big harm, the Lakers should not going to beat the Nuggets. Denver outclasses them in just about each regard.

So dire is a potential rematch with the champs {that a} rising contingent of followers and critics have instructed that the Lakers deliberately lose their play-in recreation towards the Pelicans on Tuesday. Doing so would put them in a do-or-die (however dwelling) play-in recreation towards the winner of the day’s different West matchup between the Sacramento Kings and Golden State Warriors. Ought to the Lakers win that recreation, which might be performed Friday evening on two days relaxation, they’d face the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder within the first spherical, a group they went 3-1 towards this season. 

The Nuggets would face the Pelicans within the first spherical after which both the Suns or the Timberwolves within the second. The perfect-case state of affairs can be for a kind of groups to knock the Nuggets out earlier than a potential Western Convention finals rematch with the Lakers. If the Nuggets current an immovable impediment to profitable the championship, this principle posits, then the one logical strategy to contending can be to sidestep them fully. 

It is about as galaxy-brained an strategy to the playoffs as one may conceive. There are a few dozen viable the explanation why the Lakers will not, and should not, do it. Here is the plain: it’s a must to really make the playoffs to win the championship. Beating the Pelicans will get you there. Shedding units up a win-or-go-home state of affairs towards both a Kings group that has overwhelmed you 5 occasions in a row or a Stephen Curry-led Warriors squad that has gained 10 of its final 12 and likewise three straight over Los Angeles. These are two opponents the Lakers would in all probability desire to keep away from — maybe not as badly as they’d prefer to keep away from Denver, however badly sufficient to not tempt destiny with an intentional loss.

There’s a college of thought suggesting that competing for the championship goes to imply dealing with Denver eventually. By a minimum of engineering the matchup proper now, you make sure that you are getting into it as wholesome as potential quite than subjecting LeBron James and Anthony Davis to 2 extra rounds of wear-and-tear. Additionally, champions do not run away from a problem. So if the Lakers aren’t champion materials, nicely, then they frankly aren’t going to be a lot of a match for the top-seeded Thunder within the first spherical anyway.

However these aren’t the very best causes to keep away from the Nuggets. To seek out the one most vital motive behind taking part in the Nuggets early, we’ve got to go much more galaxy-brained and counterintuitive. The precise cause the Lakers ought to wish to face the Nuggets within the first spherical is exactly as a result of they can not beat them.

Sure, that sounds ridiculous, however hear me out. The Nuggets have spent the previous two seasons proving, past a shadow of a doubt, that the Lakers can’t beat them in a playoff sequence. Beating the Nuggets is probably going going to be a prerequisite to profitable a championship at any level within the close to future. It subsequently stands to cause that the Lakers have to discover a technique to in some way beat Denver earlier than James and/or Davis age out of their present stardom in the event that they plan to win a championship with that duo as their core.

And that’s precisely why the Lakers have to lose to Denver right here and now, as a result of the very last thing this group wants is to go on one other prolonged playoff run that instills false hope earlier than finally assembly the identical destiny. The Lakers reached the Western Convention finals final season largely because of a good bracket. They had been happy sufficient with that consequence, unbiased of their sweep by the hands of the Nuggets, that they roughly ran final 12 months’s group again. Now they discover themselves in practically the very same place: a play-in group destined to lose to Denver if they do not lose sooner. The one distinction is that James and Davis are a 12 months older.

One may argue that the Lakers in all probability ought to have been higher this season had they been correctly managed. It is a cheap argument. Darvin Ham performed final postseason’s beginning lineup for a grand whole of 68 possessions this season. He yanked D’Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves out and in of the beginning lineup for a two-month interval that noticed the Lakers play their worst basketball of the season. Their postseason hopes flipped when Ham inserted Rui Hachimura into the beginning lineup in February. It should not have taken three-plus months to appreciate that the fourth-best participant of their 2023 playoff run ought to in all probability begin. The Athletic all however reported in January that Ham had misplaced the locker room. No reporting has refuted that since. A training change right here might be a necessity.

So are roster tweaks. The early-season Lakers thrived on protection. The late-season Lakers had been an all-offense group. Ham by no means discovered that goldilocks center floor as a result of the roster did not supply it. Moreover James, not a single Laker registered a Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus above +1 whereas additionally averaging a minimum of one made 3-pointer per recreation. This roster badly wants 3-and-D gamers it doesn’t have. If nothing else, it will possibly’t hope to comprise Jamal Murray with out a higher point-of-attack defender than they at present have. Murray averaged 32.5 factors on 53-41-95 taking pictures towards the Lakers this postseason. There is not any cause to suppose he could not do the identical towards a beginning lineup whose greatest perimeter defender is … Reaves?

The James-Davis window is not over. They’re each going to make All-NBA Groups this season, in spite of everything. However, to cite the good Bob Ryan, we’re on “12 months 5 of a three-year plan” right here. A idiot’s gold playoff run would do far much less for the Lakers in the long term than one other embarrassing loss to Denver. If the Lakers cannot beat the Nuggets within the first spherical, they cannot beat the Nuggets in any spherical. The earlier they arrive to that conclusion, the likelier they’re to take the steps they really have to take in an effort to change that.