It took Cody Bellinger, one of many high free brokers of the 2023-24 class, longer than anticipated to seek out his residence for the upcoming season and past. Nonetheless, he now has that certainty, as he just lately inked a pact with the incumbent Chicago Cubs that may pay him $80 million over the subsequent three years, per Jeff Passan. 

Bellinger will has opt-outs after every of the primary two years of his new deal, in accordance with Passan. As with such, Bellinger will obtain $30 million this season, $30 million in 2025 (if he would not choose out) and a remaining sum of $20 million in 2026 (if he would not choose out after 12 months 2). 

That Bellinger was in a position to return to Chicago speaks to the energy of his 2023 renaissance with the Cubs. If a former MVP finds himself non-tendered on the age of 27 by the crew that first drafted him – Bellinger and the Dodgers, for instance – then the idea is that his days as a productive common are over. That, nevertheless, turned out to not be the case. This previous season in Chicago, Bellinger in 130 video games slashed .307/.356/.525 (133 OPS+) with 26 residence runs and 20 stolen bases. That plus his sturdy glovework in heart and at first base gave Bellinger a WAR of 4.4 for the yr. Solely in that MVP marketing campaign of 2019 has he put up the next determine. 

Within the absence of another concerns, we might attribute this to improved well being – and little question that performed a task. Most notably, Bellinger suffered a shoulder dislocation in the course of the 2020 postseason, after which got here a leg fracture early within the 2021 season. That is not an exhaustive record, however these are the accidents that in all probability compromised his manufacturing and maybe even his swing. Whereas getting away from these main accidents little question performed a task in Bellinger’s comeback season, the actual driver could have been a reasonably drastic change in his strategy on the plate. That is what makes the Cubs’ long-term dedication to Bellinger an interesting – and smart – calculated danger. 

In broad phrases, Bellinger tweaked his swing and this previous season traded high quality of contact for extra frequent contact. Take into account: 

• Final season, Bellinger posted the bottom common exit velocity off the bat of his profession (87.9 mph versus an MLB-average determine of 88.4 mph). He additionally put up the worst hard-hit price and barrel price of his profession, each of which had been beneath the league-average marks. 
• Then again, Bellinger posted the bottom Okay% and whiff price of his profession. Bellinger’s Okay% final season was within the 87th percentile amongst big-league hitters, and his whiff price was within the 77th percentile. Accordingly, Bellinger additionally notched profession bests involved price each within the zone and on pitches outdoors the strike zone. 

Within the up to date period, that is not a commerce hitters are sometimes keen to make. That is partly as a result of the extra-base hit is the absolute best consequence for a hitter, in order that they have incentive to swing with full power and elevate the ball within the identify of racking up these energy numbers. Whereas Bellinger nonetheless put up good energy stats, the numerous dip in batted-ball authority is notable. The opposite consideration is that offensive platforms constructed upon batting common are vulnerable to random variation – or blind luck, when you favor. 

Sometimes, such luck, good or dangerous, is present in a hitter’s batting common on balls in play, or BABIP (What’s this?). In Bellinger’s case, final season he put up a BABIP of .319, which is ready in opposition to his pre-2023 profession BABIP of .277. That is a notable spike and an indicator that some regression is perhaps forthcoming. That stated, hitters exert a bit extra management over BABIP than pitchers do, and Bellinger’s swing and strategy adjustments could have made him a bit extra “BABIP-inclined,” if you’ll. 

Alongside related traces, let’s notice that Bellinger batted .303 on floor balls this previous season. That is in comparison with a .254 common on grounders throughout the rest of his profession from 2017 by means of 2022. Then once more, a hitter who bats lefty, has good dash velocity, and was closely shifted in prior years is positioned to learn from the banning of the infield shift. So it could be with Bellinger.

As nicely, the contact-first strategy could have helped Bellinger shut a gap in his swing. Throughout his down interval of 2020-22, Bellinger on pitches within the higher third of the strike zone batted a measly .089/.226/.194 with an Anticipated Weighted On-Base Common – or xwOBA (What’s this?) – of .226 and struck out greater than 40% of the time. Final season, nevertheless, Bellinger drastically improved his slash line on upper-third pitches to .279/.341/.365 with an xwOBA of .290, and on such pitches he greater than halved his strikeout share to twenty.3. That is a possible plus shifting ahead no matter whether or not his BABIP and general batting common slip a bit. 

Talking of slipping a bit, Bellinger in 2023 outplayed his xwOBA of .327 by fairly a margin. Nonetheless, even when he regresses to such a determine in 2024, he’ll nonetheless be an above-average hitter. That, in flip, would make him nonetheless a darn participant, and that is as a result of Bellinger does the opposite issues very nicely. 

Along with being a plus runner on the bases, Bellinger is a wonderful fielder on the up-the-middle place of heart subject. Relating to Outs Above Common (OAA), Bellinger ranked within the 82nd percentile final season, and he is been a plus fly-catcher in heart in accordance with OAA in every of the final 5 seasons and one of many high defensive heart fielders of all throughout his time within the league. He is additionally been a defensive asset at first base in recent times, however clearly his worth is maximized when manning the premium place of heart subject. Provided that he is nonetheless simply 28 years of age, Bellinger figures to retain these working and catching expertise for a while. That basis provides him an “general worth” ground that may make any destructive correction on the plate simpler to abdomen. 

So, sure, even when Bellinger’s 2023 bounce again on the plate proves to be considerably illusory, he’ll nonetheless assist the trigger for years to come back. And if he is onto one thing sustainable by emphasizing contact in such a means? If that is certainly the case, then Bellinger will proceed acting at a star degree in 2024 and past.