With the primary quarter of the 2025-26 season within the rearview mirror, some preseason playoff hopefuls discover themselves in a little bit of hassle. Which groups must be hitting the panic button, and which groups should not sweat a gradual begin?

Now that now we have a large enough pattern dimension, I’ve damaged out my useful Panic Meter to assist groups decide precisely how frightened they need to be. I took a glance below the hood at a number of the extra disappointing squads across the league to see whether or not their points are right here to remain.

Within the case of groups just like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, they’d actual hopes of a deep playoff run. In the intervening time, neither workforce is in a playoff spot, and the all-important date of American Thanksgiving is across the nook. In case you’re not within the playoffs then, historical past says you might have a few three-in-four shot of lacking out fully.

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Austin Nivison

Different groups, just like the New York Rangers and Florida Panthers, have not essentially been horrible. They’ve simply been caught in impartial, and the Jap Convention is deep sufficient that their palms may be sweating. Can these two hit excessive gear earlier than they get left within the mud?

Let’s scan six groups with the Panic Meter to see simply how nervous every one must be with about 62 video games remaining.

Toronto Maple Leafs

I am certain the very last thing any Maple Leafs fan needs to examine is Mitch Marner, however I do not assume it is a coincidence that the workforce is struggling with out him. Toronto averted the cap crunch that may have accompanied re-signing Marner, however at what value? Marner is an elite participant in all three zones, and the Leafs miss his presence in all conditions.

In fact, pinning all of Toronto’s struggles on the lack of Marner would take loads of well-deserved warmth off the protection. An getting older defensive core (outdoors of Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson) is struggling simply to tread water at five-on-five. Probably the most worrisome growth has been the decline and well being of Christopher Tanev. The 35-year-old is banged up proper now, however even earlier than the harm, his early underlying numbers had been troublesome.

To high all of it off, the goaltending hasn’t been in a position to cowl up any errors. Anthony Stolarz and Cayden Primeau have mixed to permit 9.15 objectives above common, per Pure Stat Trick. Perhaps the return of Joseph Woll stabilizes issues there.

The Maple Leafs nonetheless have expertise, particularly on the high of the lineup, and I nonetheless assume they need to be a playoff workforce. That mentioned, this group appears fairly pedestrian proper now. Even when they’ll attain the postseason, Toronto appears to be a tier or two beneath true contenders. Panic stage: 7.5/10

Edmonton Oilers

It feels just like the Oilers have been right here earlier than — as a result of they’ve. In every of the final two seasons, Edmonton has seemed like a significant disappointment earlier than Thanksgiving, however then the workforce flips a swap and goes into Demise Star mode. Can the Oilers do it once more this yr?

The primary distinction between the prior two seasons and this one is that the present iteration of the Oilers is subpar at five-on-five. Edmonton is twenty third within the NHL with a five-on-five anticipated objectives share of 47.9%. Maybe much more shocking is that the Oilers cannot generate constant offense at 2.95 xGF/60 min, which ranks twenty fourth within the league.

A lot of the issues are reasonably acquainted. For starters, the goaltending outright stinks. Stuart Skinner has a .882 save share and has allowed 5.88 objectives above common. That appears like Patrick Roy in comparison with Calvin Pickard, who has an .851 save share and has allowed 8.91 objectives above common, per Pure Stat Trick.

The opposite obtrusive points are an absence of depth scoring behind the highest 5 forwards, and depth defensemen which might be getting caved in at even energy. Edmonton desperately wants so as to add one other middle-six ahead, and somebody outdoors of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard need to step up on the blue line.

We have seen this film in Edmonton earlier than, however the three-quel is a little bit scarier. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will not let this workforce sink, however there are very actual purple flags. Panic stage: 6/10

New York Rangers

The house and highway splits for the Rangers are outright comical. New York is among the NHL’s greatest workforce on the highway, however the workforce can not purchase a win at Madison Sq. Backyard. I am unsure whether or not the Rangers simply desire the crispy bedsheets of the Ritz-Carlton to these in their very own dwelling, however one thing is up with them.

On the entire, I feel New York is a reasonably good workforce. Its five-on-five numbers are rock stable, and the 9-1-1 highway report proves the Rangers are able to successful video games in bunches. The underside line is that they are capturing 5.46% contained in the not-so-friendly confines of MSG. That nearly actually will not proceed for all 41 video games.

Let’s chalk this bizarre begin off to a statistical anomaly. In any case, if the Rangers had been even a barely beneath common workforce at dwelling, they might be close to the highest of the standings. Mike Sullivan’s squad must be simply superb, and I count on it to be battling atop the Metro Division quickly. Panic stage: 2.5/10

Florida Panthers

With Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk out long-term to begin the season, everybody knew the Panthers would want to tread water for the primary half of the season. They’ve managed to do this, even when it hasn’t all the time been fairly.

For starters, Brad Marchand and Sam Reinhart are the one two gamers scoring objectives with any stage of consistency. These two have mixed for twenty-four objectives, which is 41.4% of the workforce’s complete up to now. No different participant has greater than 5. Carter Verhaeghe is off to an excruciatingly gradual begin there with two objectives in 20 video games, however his 4.3% capturing share is sort of 9 full factors beneath his profession common.

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Austin Nivison

The largest concern for this workforce is in purpose. Sergei Bobrovsky has not been superb up to now, and that should change if the Panthers are going to three-peat. His 1.30 objectives allowed above common place him at forty seventh within the league. That will not get it achieved, particularly with out Barkov and Tkachuk.

Tkachuk is coming again, and these Panthers have confirmed they’ll step up when it issues most. Whereas Bobrovsky’s play may be a difficulty, Florida remains to be working its manner as much as wagon standing. In any case, three consecutive Stanley Cup Remaining appearances can take their toll. Panic stage: 2/10

After Jim Montgomery took over behind the bench final season, he remodeled the Blues into one of many league’s greatest defensive groups. The workforce remains to be comparatively stout in that space, but it surely hasn’t translated to wins, and St. Louis is now in a deep gap. On the danger of being too reductive, I feel you may place a overwhelming majority of the blame on the toes of the goaltenders.

Jordan Binnington and Joel Hofer have been arguably the worst goalie tandem within the NHL up to now. They’ve mixed to permit 14.9 objectives above common and have a mixed .865 save share, per Pure Stat Trick. That may sink The Crimson Military, not to mention this Blues membership.

Outdoors of the crease, there are just a few gamers off to gradual begins. Pavel Buchnevich, Dylan Holloway and Justin Faulk come to thoughts there. On the very least, the method nonetheless appears good for Holloway, however the different two are legitimately regarding.

Goaltending is a fickle factor. It is robust to foretell from game-to-game — and particularly month-to-month. That mentioned, it is robust to see Binnington and Hofer getting sufficient mojo again to make St. Louis an actual menace within the West. Panic stage: 6.5/10