ATLANTA — Why does it look like the race for the Nationwide League Most Priceless Participant is over? Why achieve this many individuals assume it is such a foregone conclusion? Is it pushed by narrative? Star energy?
Just about everybody believes Shohei Ohtani goes to win the NL MVP. Simply take a look at the percentages, through DraftKings:
When you go by these odds, the race is over and it is not even price a dialogue. And, hey, Ohtani can be a deserving winner. Given his two-way exploits, it is a simple argument that he is the most effective baseball participant on the planet proper now.
Has he really been probably the most precious participant within the Nationwide League to this point in 2025 although?
I am doubtful. The truth is, gimme PCA proper now.
Ohtani is clearly among the finest offensive gamers within the league. He gained MVP final season, deservedly so, whereas serving solely as a chosen hitter. That is how precious he’s on offense. And the thought course of behind him being to this point forward in MVP discussions this season is that he is taking that offensive worth and including again the pitching aspect.
Thus far, although, Ohtani has pitched 9 innings. That is it. He is been nice in these 9 innings (1.00 ERA, 0.4 WAR), however how a lot worth is actually derived from 9 innings on the mound in 97 Dodgers video games?
So we’re left a DH — a wonderful DH; the most effective in baseball! — with 9 added innings of pitching worth. He leads the league in runs, residence runs, slugging and OPS.
However again when Ohtani was a full-time two-way participant, the arguments for him to win MVP had been, accurately, concentrating on his worth each on offense and in run prevention. The latter this season, once more, includes of 9 innings of labor.
In the meantime, there’s an argument to be made that Pete Crow-Armstrong is the most effective place participant in baseball if we eradicated hitting. That’s, simply baserunning and protection, he would possibly effectively high the charts. He is exceptionally good on protection, overlaying seemingly greater than half of the Cubs’ outfield, operating balls down within the hole with relative ease. Ohtani does not play protection. And whereas Ohtani was the first-ever 50-50 man final season, he has 12 steals this 12 months in comparison with Crow-Armstrong’s 27.
So let’s contemplate hitting. Particularly, is Ohtani that a lot better at PCA to beat the large hole on protection/pitching and the modest hole in baserunning? Let’s look:
Ohtani: .276/.382/.605, 174 OPS+, 12 2B, 7 3B, 32 HR, 60 RBI
PCA: .265/.302/.544, 140 OPS+, 21 2B, 4 3B, 25 HR, 71 RBI
Ohtani’s a greater hitter. That is not actually in query. However is the hole actually that huge? As a result of PCA is clearly a greater baserunner and supplies considerably extra worth on protection than Ohtani’s 9 innings pitched.
It is troublesome to try to calculate how all the pieces provides collectively, however there’s a quantity. It is WAR. Now, sure, I am conscious that WAR is polarizing. Nobody ought to ever use it to say a participant is certainly higher on account of being one thing like a 0.1 lead in WAR. There is a margin of error. It’s, nevertheless, an try to drill down a participant’s worth to a single worth. Have a look at the story it tells right here in relation to Ohtani vs. PCA in 2025.
FanGraphs WAR
PCA: 4.9
Ohtani: 4.3
Baseball Reference WAR
PCA: 5.2
Ohtani: 4.3
The principle distinction between the 2 calculations is which defensive metrics they use, which explains the distinction in Crow-Armstrong’s quantity. Regardless, these aren’t actually inside the margin of error.
What is the backside line? Effectively, Ohtani is the higher hitter, however PCA is an elite defender and baserunner and is not that far behind in hitting. WAR says PCA has been extra precious this season and so do my eyes. So why does everybody assume that is such a foregone conclusion?
It should not be. It ought to be a race. And I am taking PCA proper now.
