The Memphis Grizzlies did one thing unusual after they traded Desmond Bane on Sunday. Clearly, the deal itself was uncommon. Not often do groups ostensibly planning to contend commerce away 27-year-old core gamers. However just a little quirk in its construction stands out as confounding within the context of our expectations for this Memphis offseason.

Earlier than the commerce, the Grizzlies had been projected to have round $6 million in cap house. After it, they’re right down to round $4.5 million. That may appear to be a reasonably minor distinction, however the Grizzlies gave away their 2025 first-round decide on the deadline simply to dump Marcus Sensible so they may get beneath the cap. Each greenback issues right here as a result of cap house is the important thing to preserving arguably their greatest participant.

Jaren Jackson Jr. is about to develop into a free agent in 2026. The Grizzlies want to keep away from that final result as a result of Luka Dončić and the Los Angeles Lakers are looming as a suitor subsequent summer time. In an ideal world, Memphis would simply lengthen him. The issue is that his current contract is much beneath market worth and customary veteran extension guidelines solely permit a participant to get a 40% elevate within the first 12 months of a brand new deal. Therefore, the cap house. If Memphis can filter out sufficient of it, they will renegotiate Jackson’s wage for the 2025-26 season after which give him a much bigger extension based mostly on that quantity. To offer Jackson his max within the 2026-27 season and past, the Grizzlies have to get to round $14 million in house.

Now, the Grizzlies produce other avenues of clearing house if they should. Buying and selling John Konchar and his $6.2 million cap determine is an apparent begin. However nonetheless, it appears a bit unusual that Memphis would make any transfer this offseason that may decrease its cap house contemplating the worth it paid to start out the method of making it again in February.

After all, it is completely doable that their organizational priorities have modified since February. In spite of everything, on deadline day, Memphis was a 35-16 No. 2 seed. The workforce completed the common season on a 13-18 run, fell all the way in which to No. 8 within the West and fired head coach Taylor Jenkins. In February, clearing cap house to pay Jackson and maintain the workforce collectively appeared like the right objective. But when the Grizzlies are nearer to the workforce we noticed within the closing two months of the season, it’d make sense for them to discover different choices.

They did so by buying and selling Bane to the Magic. They might have merely been overwhelmed by the provide: 4 first-round picks and a swap, with the caveat that they needed to eat some adverse wage. They might be planning to show round and use these picks they bought within the Bane deal to commerce for various win-now gamers. However given how poorly final season ended, they could additionally see a golden alternative right here. This would possibly simply be the right probability for them to tank.

Jackson is a max-level participant when he is wholesome, however he has a prolonged historical past of accidents that makes any long-term extension dangerous. He’s additionally uniquely tradable at this actual second. Whereas his low cap determine of $23.6 million makes him arduous to increase, it makes him straightforward to suit onto the steadiness sheet of just about any contender. His taking pictures makes him a viable slot in nearly any form of entrance courtroom, and he’s among the many perfect defensive gamers in basketball. It would not be arduous to check Memphis flipping him for an additional handful of unprotected first-round picks from a workforce of its selecting.

Ja Morant’s worth is harder to peg. He carries related well being dangers and comes with a handful of off-court considerations as effectively. He is making max cash, and buying and selling major ball-handlers who do not defend or shoot 3s is difficult. He most likely does not get again almost as a lot as his expertise suggests he ought to, and normal supervisor Zach Kleiman shut down Morant commerce rumors in February. As we have coated, although, rather a lot has modified since then. If the Grizzlies can get significant optimistic worth, even when it is not fairly the haul Morant would have garnered a couple of years in the past, the Grizzlies would nonetheless be positioned terribly effectively.

Memphis controls all of its personal future first-round picks. It has a doubtlessly fascinating Phoenix decide subsequent 12 months and two Orlando picks plus a swap after that. Add picks from a number of different groups due to Jackson and Morant and the Grizzlies might kick off a rebuild with an absolute mountain of belongings.

In some methods, it might be harking back to the start line of Oklahoma Metropolis’s rebuild. Just like the Grizzlies, the 2018-19 Thunder had been a middling Western Convention playoff workforce. Just like the Grizzlies, their course of started after they dealt a core participant, of their case Paul George, from a place of energy somewhat than weak spot. 

Now, the apparent distinction right here can be that Memphis wouldn’t get to start out its rebuild with a Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-level prospect, however bear in mind, Houston did not begin its post-James Harden rebuild with one both. The Rockets are in fairly fine condition proper now, and the Grizzlies, simply by the sheer variety of picks they’d personal versus the Rockets who had been closely invested within the Nets, particularly, is likely to be beginning out in a fair higher place.

Houston bought the place it’s right this moment by a mixture of cap house, good drafting and tanking. Cap house is a given in a rebuild if you need it. The Grizzlies are about as good at drafting as any workforce within the NBA. They bought Bane at No. 30, in any case, to say nothing of the entire position gamers they’ve landed within the second spherical or after the draft completely. If their model of Alperen Sengun at No. 16 is on the market, you’ll be able to belief Kleiman to seek out that participant. Conveniently sufficient, the Grizzlies now actually maintain the No. 16 decide within the 2025 Draft.

That leaves tanking. There has by no means been a greater time to tank within the Western Convention than proper now. No person desires to be unhealthy. The Jazz do not wish to be unhealthy. The Suns most likely ought to commerce Devin Booker and blow all of it up, however they seemingly don’t have any intention of doing so. San Antonio traded for De’Aaron Fox and will by no means land within the lottery once more with Victor Wembanyama in place. All of final season’s good groups determine to be good shifting ahead. Successful within the West has by no means been tougher, and Bane’s absence will make it even tougher to take action within the subsequent few years. The other is true too: dropping within the West has by no means been simpler, and Bane’s absence will make it even simpler. The Grizzlies might get to the highest of a loaded 2026 draft class fairly simply in the event that they wished to.

That is the lacking piece right here. We do not know what the Grizzlies need to do but, and we do not know if the Bane commerce has modified that calculus. It is completely doable that they entered this offseason planning to retool round Bane, Morant and Jackson solely to get floored by an enormous provide that they did not count on and could not resist. Such a transfer might simply change their plan. Bear in mind, the Thunder did not plan to rebuild both. They noticed a chance to extort a haul from the Clippers for George and so they took it. The Bane commerce would possibly signify the same alternative, and Jackson and Morant would determine to get again greater than Russell Westbrook did in Oklahoma Metropolis’s follow-up transfer.

Alternatives like this are unpredictable, and so they can go in each instructions. Possibly the Grizzlies see an opportunity to flip all of those picks for the precise participant or gamers within the subsequent month and really get higher for subsequent season. Or possibly they simply belief their capacity to draft sufficient that they maintain onto Morant and Jackson, use these picks, and hope that they will construct a contender organically earlier than age or accidents finish their primes. These are all believable paths. Executives usually favor the trail of least resistance. The second you commerce away your stars is the second you place a goal in your again as a normal supervisor.

However Kleiman, by advantage of constructing the profitable Morant-Jackson-Bane-era groups, has most likely purchased himself sufficient job safety to take such a plunge. The truth that he was capable of fireplace Taylor Jenkins in the midst of March in a season during which the Grizzlies had playoff ambitions says a good bit in regards to the latitude that he is given. He isn’t Sam Presti as a result of no person is Sam Presti, however he suits the profile of a normal supervisor who would assume this manner: younger, coming off of a profitable period that didn’t lead to a championship and customarily forward-thinking in the way in which he constructs his groups.

In a couple of weeks, any notions of such an overhaul is likely to be dispelled. Memphis would possibly simply do what it takes to clear cap house, re-sign Jackson and transfer ahead with this core. And hey, possibly it really works. Possibly Morant stays wholesome, Jackson builds on his current offensive progress and the youthful position gamers develop sufficient to fill in for Bane within the combination. Or possibly the accidents overwhelm Morant and Jackson’s extension proves cumbersome. Both is on the board. The danger of the latter, in my thoughts, outweighs the reward of the previous in a Western Convention during which even the best-case Grizzlies final result most likely cannot sniff the Thunder workforce that simply beat them. The Bane commerce created a chance for Memphis to keep away from the most effective years of Oklahoma Metropolis’s impending run and set themselves as much as emulate the Thunder afterward. It is of their greatest curiosity to take it.