Shai Gilgeous-Alexander did two issues when he sank two free throws with 13.2 seconds remaining in Sport 1 between his Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder and the Denver Nuggets. First, and most significantly within the second, he gave the Thunder a 117-114 lead. Second, and finally extra importantly, he gave his head coach, Mark Daigneault, an important choice of his season so far.

The Nuggets wanted a 3-pointer to tie the sport. The Nuggets additionally occur to aim the fewest 3-pointers within the NBA. The Thunder, in the meantime, not solely had the NBA’s greatest protection within the common season, however allowed their opponents to make solely 34.2% of their 3-pointers for the season, which was the bottom mark within the NBA. If one of the best 3-point protection in basketball may simply forestall the least keen group of shooters within the NBA from making a single 3-pointer with lower than 15 seconds on the clock, they might take a 1-0 collection lead.

Daigneault, apparently, didn’t like these odds sufficient to present Denver the possibility. Relatively than enable the Nuggets to attempt to get a 3-pointer up, he determined to foul. The next, almost unbelievable sequence of occasions occurred.

• With 12.2 seconds remaining, Alex Caruso fouled Nikola Jokić. He made each free throws, making the rating 117-116 Thunder. Timeout, Thunder
• With 11 seconds remaining, Gilgeous-Alexander broke away from Denver’s protection for a straightforward dunk off an after-timeout inbounds play. This offers the Thunder a 119-116 lead.
• With 10.1 seconds remaining, Caruso fouled Aaron Gordon. That is particularly vital for 2 causes. The primary is that Jokić had been faraway from the sport previous to Gilgeous-Alexander’s dunk as a result of he had 5 fouls. The Nuggets could not danger him selecting up a sixth deliberately fouling a member of the Thunder on the earlier play. Nevertheless, the Nuggets didn’t have a timeout. They have been anticipating to place Jokić again on the ground throughout Oklahoma Metropolis’s free throws, however as a result of Gilgeous-Alexander dunked moderately than get fouled, they’d no manner of getting him again on the ground. Due to this fact, had the Thunder not fouled, Denver would have had 10 seconds to attempt to generate a 3-pointer with out Jokić to orchestrate the possession. As a substitute, Jokić returned to the ground, and Gordon made each of his free throws. This lower the Thunder lead right down to 119-118.
• With 9.1 seconds remaining, Russell Westbrook fouled Chet Holmgren. Holmgren missed each free throws. Now, the Nuggets not want a 3-pointer. Christian Braun hits Russell Westbrook previous mid-court. Fearing a transition layup or a drive which may yield free throws, each Holmgren and Jalen Williams, the 2 Thunder defenders who have been actually within the play, stored their eyes on him. However Westbrook handed the ball to Gordon, who drilled a game-winning 3-pointer with 2.8 seconds remaining.

Clearly, there’s lots to unpack right here. As Daigneault identified, fouling up three will not be new for the Thunder. It is the technique they’ve used all season, they usually executed it per their coach’s orders, and he took the blame after Sport 1. “It is robust to modify the technique,” Daigneault stated. “We have the fellows locked in on fouling up three as a philosophy. They executed it like I stated.”

Broadly talking, fouling up three might be the proper technique. It is arduous to pin down particular knowledge supporting that as a result of each recreation situation is totally different, however there is a frequent sense to this: in case your opponent wants three factors and there is a technique obtainable that grants them solely two one-point photographs, that is normally going to be the correct play. 

If Holmgren, a 78% free-throw shooter for his profession, makes each of his final two makes an attempt and Denver has to take care of that three-point lead with no timeout, we might possible be having a really totally different dialog proper now. Earlier than you argue that the Thunder should not have counted on Holmgren to make his photographs, keep in mind that Gordon is a 69.3% free-throw shooter for his profession. A part of this was execution, not technique. The Nuggets made their free throws and the Thunder did not.

As all the time, although, there’s necessary context to think about. The largest on Monday was the clock. With only some seconds remaining, a foul is the plain play. Even when your opponent makes each free throws, they would not have sufficient time with solely, say, two or three seconds remaining to get the ball again and make one other shot of their very own. However Oklahoma Metropolis’s fouling began with 13.2 seconds left, greater than sufficient time for follow-up possessions.

Their two intentional fouls got here solely 2.1 seconds other than each other, each with greater than 10 seconds remaining on the sport clock. This turned a recreation that might have concluded in a single possession into one which featured 5 possessions within the remaining 13.2 seconds. Extra possessions means extra variance. Variance favors the trailing workforce and the underdog. The Nuggets have been each on Monday. Even when Holmgren had made each of his free throws, there was nonetheless a lot time on the clock that the Thunder would have needed to have fouled Denver not less than yet another time, if not two, to seal the sport this manner. That is lots of alternatives for one thing bizarre to interrupt Denver’s manner.

Even when they’d needed to play this manner, adaptability might be the one most necessary trait a coach can have. Daigneault, frankly, had tunnel imaginative and prescient. He did not regulate when circumstances gave him a potential remaining offensive possession for Denver that didn’t embrace Jokić. Throughout the common season, the Nuggets made 39.6% of their 3-pointers with Jokić on the ground… and 34% when he was off of it. That was in all probability the one greatest mistake of the sequence.

However even should you take a look at the ultimate 13.2 seconds holistically, it is price questioning if Daigneault’s worry of a potential 3-pointer was even justified. Contemplate the context of the sport itself:

• Denver shot 31.3% from deep in Sport 1. Gordon’s winner apart, it isn’t as if the Nuggets had a very sizzling hand in Sport 1.
• Even when the Thunder have been useless set towards fouling… it isn’t as if the Nuggets would have identified that. Denver would have needed to function offensively as if the opportunity of a foul existed. That might imply dashing up the primary semi-plausible 3-pointer it may get, whether or not or not it was particularly open or within the arms of the proper shooter. In different phrases, in the event that they received a 3 underneath these circumstances, it was in all probability going to be a nasty 3.
• There have been 13.2 seconds left when the intentional fouling started. It is arduous to consider the Nuggets may have methodically whittled all of that point off of the clock when working from such a determined place. Should you consider they have been taking the primary 3-pointer they may discover, it possible would have include 5 – 6 seconds left on the clock. Due to this fact, even when it goes in, the Thunder may have known as timeout and drawn up their very own try at game-winner on the opposite finish of the ground. They’ve the presumptive MVP in Gilgeous-Alexander. They may have felt moderately good about their possibilities of scoring on that hypothetical final possession.
• To illustrate the sport goes to time beyond regulation. The Nuggets simply performed a Sport 7 towards the Clippers two days in the past. The Thunder swept their first-round collection towards the Clippers and have been due to this fact much more rested. In the meantime, six gamers performed not less than 40 minutes on this recreation. Jamal Murray (44) and Jokić (42) led the sport. Braun and Gilgeous-Alexander have been at 40. Gordon and Williams performed 39. The Thunder have been more energizing inside the recreation itself as properly, and given their depth, may have cycled in whichever moderately recent reserve they wanted whereas Denver has confirmed all postseason that it mainly solely trusts the starters and Westbrook. As a cherry on high, the Thunder have been additionally taking part in at residence. The percentages, even when the sport went to time beyond regulation, have been overwhelmingly of their favor.

Measuring all of those variables on the fly is a part of what makes teaching such a tough job, and mockingly, one may argue that Daigneault has virtually achieved that job too properly this season. The Thunder simply had the second-best web score in NBA historical past. They blew everybody out. In your entire common season, they performed solely 24 clutch video games. No different workforce performed fewer than 29. That inexperience was clearly felt because the gamers blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead, but it surely additionally seemingly got here up for Daigneault in these remaining moments. That is solely his second postseason. He is had far fewer regular-season reps in conditions like this. So he performed the chances moderately than evaluating the whole lot of the sport context. That could be a useful studying expertise for him down the road, however for now, it could have price the Thunder Sport 1.