The time for screaming at one another about who deserves to be within the Faculty Soccer Playoff and who would not has come and gone. There is no extra want for hypotheticals, whether or not wise or not, as a result of it is time to decide some winners on the sphere.
The primary spherical of the primary 12-team Faculty Soccer Playoff begins on campus websites this weekend, as for the primary time, residence video games shall be a part of the faculty soccer postseason. This is not going to solely result in an unbelievable environment at every recreation but in addition current distinctive challenges for each crew.
As a substitute of outside stadiums in warm-weather cities or domed stadiums shared equally by followers of each side, we’ll be coping with the weather this weekend and principally partisan crowds. Present forecasts counsel freezing chilly temperatures for 3 of our video games with attainable snow within the forecast as effectively.
It ought to result in some unbelievable soccer. Let’s hope we are able to match it with some successful picks. Odds by way of SportsLine consensus.
(10) Indiana at (7) Notre Dame
Think about if any person instructed you years in the past that the primary playoff recreation in an expanded area could be between Notre Dame and Indiana. Severely, I’ve watched the Hoosiers all season, and I nonetheless shake my head a bit on the truth they’ve come this far. I am additionally shocked the Notre Dame crew that misplaced at residence to Northern Illinois is internet hosting a playoff recreation! And it is a Winner Takes Indiana battle!
There’s been lots of discuss Indiana’s schedule this season, and loads of it is warranted. What is not mentioned as usually is that it is not as if Notre Dame went by way of a gauntlet itself. In response to Sagarin rankings, Indiana performed the 74th most tough schedule whereas Notre Dame’s was sixty fourth. The distinction between them is miniscule. Nevertheless, even when Indiana blasted a lot of the groups it performed this 12 months, I’ve extra religion within the Preventing Irish coming into the sport, and never just because they’re at residence.
I simply can’t shake how ineffective Indiana’s offense seemed in opposition to the 2 greatest defenses it confronted in Michigan and Ohio State. In 10 video games in opposition to everybody else, Indiana scored 3.97 factors per possession and had a hit price of 53.8%. Towards Ohio State and Michigan, these numbers plummeted to 1.52 factors per possession and 39.8%. Notre Dame’s protection is on par with each these groups, if not higher. The Hoosiers have been higher alongside the traces of scrimmage in opposition to most groups, however after they weren’t, they did not appear like the identical crew.
That is to not say Indiana cannot have success right here. Defensively, the Hoosiers match up effectively, however until they power a number of turnovers, I do not know that their offense will rating sufficient. The Decide: Notre Dame -7 (-110)
(11) SMU at (6) Penn State
The climate may have an effect right here; the present forecast has temperatures within the low-30s with snow attainable. That is a bit regarding, however the extra I take a look at the matchup, the extra I really feel like we will see a shootout.
Penn State’s offense has been one of the crucial explosive offenses within the nation (16.1% explosive play price, fifth nationally) and might put factors on the board in a rush. Tight finish Tyler Warren is a matchup nightmare that I am undecided SMU has a solution for, and he ought to have an enormous recreation. Whereas I fear a little bit about backup QB Beau Pribula leaving the crew due to his impression in sure conditions, his absence shall be felt extra down the street ought to Penn State advance. With or with out him, Penn State ought to have loads of success on the bottom.
Do not get me improper, SMU’s defensive entrance was higher than anticipated, but it surely wasn’t practically as dominant in opposition to Clemson within the ACC Championship Sport, and this Penn State offensive line could also be the very best it has seen all 12 months.
On the opposite aspect, Penn State has an outstanding protection, but when there is a weak spot, it is that it’s vulnerable to giving up massive performs (it ranks fiftieth in explosive play price allowed). I can see SMU hitting massive performs to get itself in scoring place, and the wild card is Mustangs QB Kevin Jennings. Penn State’s schedule, I do not know if there is a QB they’ve seen this season with Jennings’ talent set. Sure, the Nittany Lions have seen cellular QBs, however no person with the general athleticism as Jennings. His capacity to evade strain and choose up first downs along with his legs to maintain drives alive shall be important on this recreation. Ultimately, I’ve Penn State successful, however I am extra assured within the winner needing to attain no less than 30 factors. The Decide: Over 53.5 (-114)
(12) Clemson at (5) Texas
Full disclosure: That is the first-round recreation wherein I’ve the least confidence. I can see this recreation getting into any variety of instructions, from a Texas blowout victory to Clemson successful outright. Each of those groups have been inconsistent all season, and it is powerful to know who will present up. Ultimately, I am leaning in Clemson’s course, no less than in the case of the unfold.
I’ve issues about Quinn Ewers. He nonetheless seems to be coping with the indirect harm he suffered earlier this season, and it is impacting his play, notably within the purple zone. He cannot put the type of velocity on the ball that is wanted in that a part of the sphere, and it is impacting Texas’ capacity to complete drives. Within the first three video games of the season, earlier than Ewers was damage, Texas averaged 5.44 factors per purple zone drive. Within the eight video games since his return, that quantity has dropped to three.56.
A part of that is because of Texas’ incapability to run the ball this season, so it is attainable a bit extra Arch Manning at that finish of the sphere may assist, however Texas’ run recreation being ineffective general is one other space that issues me. The weak point of Clemson’s protection this season has been stopping the run, the place it ranks 76th in EPA per rush in comparison with twenty third in EPA per dropback.
Can Texas exploit that sufficient?
As for the Tigers offense, the priority is that they’re able to a no-show. We noticed it in losses to Georgia, Louisville and South Carolina. The Texas protection has been phenomenal this 12 months, and I anticipate it will make life depressing for Clemson. However, in the long run, I simply do not have sufficient religion within the Longhorns offense to belief their capacity to cowl a double-digit unfold. The Decide: Clemson +11.5 (-110)
(9) Tennessee at (8) Ohio State
Probably the most fascinating matchup of the primary spherical, and never simply due to what’ll occur on the sphere. Name me loopy, however I do not suppose it is an awesome signal when Ohio State’s athletic director is publicly asking Ohio State followers to not promote their tickets to Tennessee followers on the secondary market. We all know fan morale in Columbus, Ohio, is low after the Michigan loss, so it stays to be seen what sort of environment we get right here.
As for the matchup, I scent a rock battle coming our approach. Each groups have wonderful defenses. Ohio State is first nationally in factors allowed per possession (0.92) and Tennessee is true behind them in third (1.01). The important thing for each is their cross rush, as Ohio State ranks eighth in strain price whereas Tennessee is eleventh. That is large on this matchup as a result of Ohio State could be very banged up on the offensive line, whereas Tennessee’s offensive line has had problem pass-blocking all season lengthy.
I anticipate each Will Howard and Nico Iamaleava to be coping with visitors within the pocket, and each groups will probably look to lean on their run video games to gradual these cross rushes down.
I feel Ohio State wins most of the time as a result of it has been significantly better ending drives on offense than Tennessee has, however I do not suppose both crew will look nice on offense or be able to pulling away from the opposite. The Decide: Below 47 (-110)
SportsLine’s confirmed pc mannequin is asking for 10 outright upsets throughout faculty soccer’s bowl and playoff season. Go to SportsLine now to see all of them, plus get unfold picks for each recreation from the mannequin that simulates each matchup 10,000 instances.
