After a weekend of upsets, the faculty soccer rankings have hit some extent the place AP Prime 25 ballot voters must determine the best way to weigh latest scores, resumes and head-to-head outcomes to type out a complicated jumble of groups inside the highest 20.
The simplest prediction to make is that Ole Miss shall be shifting up after a convincing win in opposition to Georgia. It is the highest-ranked opponent Ole Miss has defeated at dwelling in entrance the largest crowd in program historical past. The present location of the aim put up items is unknown, however the affect of Lane Kiffin taking down Kirby Good and the Bulldogs is critical and shall be mirrored within the rankings when voters replace their ballots.
However the place it will get troublesome after Week 11 is how the head-to-head outcomes do not fairly line up. Ole Miss shall be on the best way up, whereas LSU, which beat the Rebels earlier this season, goes to be dropping after Alabama ran up the rating in Loss of life Valley. The Crimson Tide determine to be shifting up as nicely, however the place they stack up in opposition to Ole Miss shall be an attention-grabbing debate as each groups have two losses and notable wins but additionally defeats to groups which can be more likely to be unranked within the new AP ballot.
And the way will these groups on the rise stack up in opposition to Miami, which simply took its first lack of the season by the hands of Georgia Tech? The Bulldogs’ drop additionally appears notable contemplating it has a head-to-head win in opposition to one-loss Texas, which is a top-five staff that rolled Florida on Saturday. AP voters usually use a mix of report, resumes and head-to-head outcomes to type out their ballots, however there’s too many conflicts to make any rankings course of clear.
Plus, there’s the affect of the School Soccer Playoff Rankings.
Within the 10 seasons of the School Soccer Playoff period, we’ve seen loads of situations the place there’s a cat-and-mouse relationship between the choice committee and the AP voters; the opinions of 1 ballot would possibly affect the opposite with a launch date two days aside. AP voters will generally be extra keen to supply assist for a staff the committee favors, and generally it’s that Sunday launch of the AP Prime 25 that units a pleasant start line for the expectations for what the committee will announce on Tuesday evening.
Within the first launch for 2024, we noticed 13 of the highest 17 groups with the very same rankings because the AP ballot with the one variations being one-spot swaps at Nos. 2-3 and Nos. 14-15. That isn’t our basic expectation for what’s coming after the shakeups of Week 11, however for now, our job is simply to undertaking how the AP voters will react.
Here is how we undertaking the brand new AP Prime 25 ballot to look on Sunday after Week 11:
1. Oregon (Final week — 1): There may be not a greater possibility for No. 1 within the nation than Oregon, which acquired to 10-0 with a 21-point dwelling win in opposition to Maryland. The Geese had been unanimous final week and certain could possibly be once more, even when the victory got here with some hiccups and penalty points alongside the best way. Up subsequent is a street journey to Wisconsin, per week off after which the regular-season finale in opposition to rival Washington.
2. Ohio State (3): On a day stuffed with shakeups, there was no query about whether or not Ohio State was going to be on upset alert. The Buckeyes will take over the No. 2 spot simply behind the Geese after a 45-0 shutout win in opposition to Purdue.
3. Texas (5): The Longhorns put collectively a dominant wire-to-wire efficiency in opposition to an undermanned Florida staff early within the day on Saturday, and that 49-17 rating shall be a great reminder to AP voters why they’ve Texas as a top-five staff.
4. Penn State (6): Nice response from the Nittany Lions to bounce again from a disappointing defeat with a dominating 35-6 win in opposition to Washington.
5. Indiana (8): Whereas the Hoosiers did fall wanting assembly the oddsmakers’ expectations as two-touchdown favorites, Indiana did beat one of the crucial proficient opponents on its schedule to enhance to 10-0 on the season. Our projection is that even with an in depth win, merely beating a program of Michigan’s caliber will flip simply sufficient ballots to see Indiana make up the razor-thin hole between their positioning final week and not less than one of many one-loss groups forward of them within the rankings.
6. Tennessee (7): The standing of Nico Iamaleava is of the utmost concern for Tennessee popping out of a 33-14 win in opposition to Mississippi State. The Vols quarterback didn’t play within the second half due to an higher physique harm, and with Georgia developing subsequent week, all consideration shall be on his standing. However, when it comes to the rankings, there shouldn’t be an excessive amount of adjustment after a win that largely met expectations, particularly with out QB1 within the lineup for the second half.
7. BYU (9): Whereas unpredictable begins for different beforehand undefeated groups have fallen aside within the final two weeks, BYU stays unbeaten after an epic rivalry win in opposition to Utah.
8. Notre Dame (10): Type had been factors had been there for the taking and Notre Dame gladly took them in a 52-3 win in opposition to Florida State. That is now 5 straight video games the place the Preventing Irish have scored 30 factors or extra and 4 straight double-digit wins for a staff that is trying more and more able to compete in opposition to the very best groups within the nation within the School Soccer Playoff.
9. Alabama (11): There’s a ceiling for Alabama’s transfer up within the rankings even when voters shall be extra enthusiastic concerning the Crimson Tide following Saturday evening’s win at LSU. With a head-to-head defeat to Tennessee and another loss than the Vols, we’re projecting that Alabama shall be shifting up into the highest 10 and achieve much more consensus assist as a top-10 staff however stay exterior the highest 5.
10. Ole Miss (16): The Rebels are going to be the notable movers up due to not solely beating a top-five staff however doing so handily in adversarial circumstances with a quarterback who acquired hobbled within the victory. Jaxson Dart’s gritty efficiency highlights a press release win for Ole Miss because it pursues its first-ever School Soccer Playoff look.
11. Georgia (2): The Bulldogs dropped to 7-2 with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss. Wins at Texas and in opposition to Clemson helps the argument. With losses to Alabama and Ole Miss, there isn’t any unhealthy losses. Nonetheless, the optics aren’t nice.
12. Miami (4): Whereas this may be on the aggressive facet for projecting Miami’s fall, the shortage of high-end wins offers the Hurricanes a profile that’s nearer to Boise State and SMU, in order that’s the place we undertaking they’ll land as the main focus turns to successful the ACC to ensure a spot within the School Soccer Playoff.
13. Boise State (12): There could possibly be some shuffling after an in depth name in opposition to Nevada, however we’re finally projecting that the Broncos maintain regular within the pecking order.
14. SMU (13): The Mustangs had been off in Week 11 and shall be again in motion subsequent week in opposition to Boston School.
15. Texas A&M (15): The Aggies had been off in Week 11 and shall be again in motion subsequent week in opposition to New Mexico State.
16. Military (18): The return of star quarterback Bryson Dailey was the headline, however the actual key to Military enhancing to 9-0 was a pair of finish zone interceptions by the protection in a 14-3 win at North Texas.
17. Clemson (19): Issues regarded bleak early when Virginia Tech blocked a area aim — the third blocked area aim in two weeks for Clemson — and returned it for a landing, however the Tigers took management of the sport in a hostile atmosphere and held on for a 10-point win at Virginia Tech.
18. Colorado (21): After happening 13-0 early, the Buffs acquired the offense rolling and made sufficient stops within the second half to get out and in of Lubbock with a 41-27 win in opposition to Texas Tech. The Buffs at the moment are 7-2 and firmly within the combine for a spot within the Massive 12 title sport.
19. LSU (14): The Tigers’ win in opposition to Ole Miss helps their probabilities to stay within the prime 25, however the place they sit amongst groups within the 20s will depend upon voter desire. With out a ton of apparent choices shifting into the rankings, we’re projecting they keep simply inside the highest 20. However something from No. 17 to No. 22 could be a viable spot for LSU to land.
20. Washington State (20): The Cougars are presently in motion in opposition to Utah State.
21. Kansas State (22): The Wildcats had been off in Week 11 and shall be again in motion subsequent week in opposition to Arizona State.
22. Louisville (25): The Cardinals had been off in Week 11 and shall be again in motion subsequent week at Stanford.
23. Missouri (NR): The Tigers had been twenty sixth in voting factors final week however did present up within the School Soccer Playoff rankings at No. 24. These components will assist with Saturday evening’s win in opposition to Oklahoma to maneuver Missouri again into the AP ballot.
24. South Carolina (NR): The Gamecocks adopted up final week’s field-storming celebration within the wake of beating top-10 Texas A&M with a strong 28-7 street win in opposition to Vanderbilt. The end result will bounce the Commodores from the highest 25 and transfer South Carolina, which was twenty seventh in voting factors final week, again into the AP ballot for the primary time for the reason that ultimate rankings of the 2022 season.
25. Tulane (NR): Beating Temple alone will not have voters speeding so as to add Tulane to their poll, however the Inexperienced Wave are demanding extra consideration after successful 52-6 to enhance to 8-2 total and 6-0 in convention play. With video games in opposition to Navy and Memphis left on the schedule there’s nonetheless work to be accomplished to safe a spot within the American Athletic Convention title sport, however Jon Sumrall is driving a seven-game successful streak with a staff that is enjoying its finest soccer of the yr on the proper time.
Projected to drop out: No. 17 Iowa State, No. 22 Pitt, No. 24 Vanderbilt
