The Dodgers are World Collection champions and the 2024-25 offseason is underway. We’re nonetheless ready for the primary vital free-agent signing (sorry Michael Wacha), which is not uncommon every week into the offseason. There was one notable commerce via, with the Angels bringing in Jorge Soler for some purpose. Give it one other week or so and the motion will choose up.

Earlier than the new range actually fires up, listed below are 10 daring predictions for the 2024-25 offseason. Final offseason’s daring predictions had been fairly darn good. Be at liberty to mock this 12 months’s, however all geniuses had been known as loopy at first.

1. Juan Soto will set two contract data

With really elite tippy-top-of-the-market free brokers, my rule of thumb is no matter you anticipate them to get, it’s going to be extra. These guys have a means of blowing contract projections out of the water as a result of contract projections are rational, and free company is irrational. Alex Rodriguez again within the day, Gerrit Cole 5 years in the past, Aaron Choose two years in the past, Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto final 12 months, and so on. All of them obtained greater than anticipated, and there is not any purpose to assume issues might be completely different for Juan Soto this offseason.

Soto is just 26 and he is a younger 26. He turned 26 the identical day as Recreation 1 of the World Collection. Whichever group indicators him will get peak years in bulk, and fairly presumably one of the best years of his profession. That is fairly unbelievable given how good Soto has been up to now. He’s a franchise participant in each means. Extremely-productive, unafraid of the brilliant lights and large markets, and his worth to the franchise transcends what he does on the sector as a result of he sells tickets, ups rankings, and generates web page views.

Our first daring prediction requires Soto to set two contract data this offseason. We’ll say he will get the biggest complete assure ever, eclipsing Ohtani’s $700 million, and likewise the biggest common annual worth ever as soon as adjusted for deferrals, beating out Ohtani’s $46.1 million. Listed below are the biggest contracts in baseball historical past:

We’re crossing the streams right here. Ohtani’s $700 million assure is earlier than deferrals and his $46.1 million common annual worth is current day after deferrals. I blame the Dodgers. Level is, we’re boldly predicting Soto will high $700 million in complete {dollars} and likewise are available over $46.1 million per 12 months, as soon as adjusted for deferrals. He’ll get the richest contract ever, mainly.

My hunch is Soto returns to the Yankees, although I am about 55/45 on that fairly than the 95/5 it will be if George Steinbrenner was operating the group and never his son Hal. Let’s name the contract 15 years and $720 million, or $48 million per 12 months. Loopy? Eh, probably not. Wait till you get a load of what the Steinbrenner household is value. Soto will make historical past instances two this offseason.

2. The Mets and White Sox will make a blockbuster

Good probability the Mets are essentially the most energetic group in baseball this offseason. An ideal probability, actually. That they had greater than $180 million come off the books after the season and, after a spirited run to the NLCS, the Mets are poised so as to add and cement themselves as a Nationwide League powerhouse. They are going to make a run at Soto. That a lot is clear. And, even when they get him, anticipate the Mets to make a number of different high-profile strikes to enhance the roster.

For this subsequent daring prediction, we’ll say the Mets hook up for a blockbuster commerce with the White Sox, one which sends Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. to Flushing. The Mets want rotation assist with Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana, and Luis Severino all turning into free brokers, and so they haven’t got a middle fielder (Tyrone Taylor’s a pleasant participant, however come on). Crochet and Robert to the Mets for a package deal that features Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña, and not less than two others. It has been foretold.

3. The Orioles open their pockets to maintain Corbin Burnes

If the Orioles need to be thought-about an elite group, then it is time to spend like an elite group. Craig Kimbrel was their solely major-league free-agent signing final offseason and that was a catastrophe. The O’s gained 101 video games in 2023, opened 2024 with the fifth-lowest payroll in baseball, then gained 91 video games and obtained swept within the Wild Card Collection. Can not help however really feel like a bit extra offseason exercise places them in a greater place in 2024. You’ll be able to’t get these years again. You’ll be able to’t kick the can down the street endlessly.

Fortuitously, a gaggle led by Baltimore billionaire David Rubenstein formally bought the O’s from the Angelos household in March, and all indicators level to a payroll enhance. How a lot? It is unclear, however I’d be shocked if the Orioles are backside 5 in payroll once more in 2025. As such, we’re boldly predicting Rubenstein opens his pockets to maintain ace Corbin Burnes in Baltimore. Aces are getting $40-plus million a 12 months lately. We’ll say Burnes will get eight years and $320 million ($40 million AAV), which takes him via age 37, the identical age Gerrit Cole’s nine-year contract takes him via with the Yankees. 

4. Alex Bregman joins A.J. Hinch in Detroit

Do the Tigers want a 3rd baseman? No, probably not. High prospect Jace Jung debuted late in 2024 and figures to imagine a bigger function in 2025. Opinions are cut up on Jung, nevertheless, and after advancing to the ALDS, the Tigers might want extra of a positive factor as they transition out of rebuilding and into perennial rivalry. Longtime Astros third baseman Alex Bregman is a battle-tested veteran who is aware of Tigers supervisor A.J. Hinch from their days in Houston, and he would give Detroit a wanted right-handed center of the order presence, to not point out a defensive improve. I believed Carlos Correa would wind up with Hinch and the Tigers a couple of years in the past for those self same causes. They went with Javier Báez as a substitute and that has been a catastrophe. I feel they reel in Bregman this time round.

5. Pete Alonso settles for a one-year contract

Final offseason, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery, and Blake Snell had been all Scott Boras purchasers who needed to accept one-year contracts with participant choices. All besides Chapman had been coming off profession years too. They’re all good gamers, little doubt, although they had been a notch under the sport’s elite. Pete Alonso is in that very same camp this offseason: A Boras consumer who’s an excellent participant, clearly, but additionally one with flaws (declining common and on-base potential, lower than stellar glove, and so on.). Nowadays, groups simply do not pay massive for free-agent first basemen. This daring prediction says Alonso falls within the Bellinger/Chapman/Montgomery/Snell bucket and has to accept a one-year contract with an enormous wage ($35 million) and two participant choices. Let’s pencil him for the Astros. Sound good?

6. The Mariners lastly get Josh Naylor

This has been within the works for some time now. The Mariners had been stated to have curiosity in Guardians first baseman Josh Naylor final offseason and once more on the commerce deadline, and I wager their curiosity goes again even additional than that. Seattle badly wants offense and first base is an apparent spot to improve. Naylor is now solely a 12 months away from free company, he is $12 million or so via arbitration, and Cleveland has its first baseman of the long run in Kyle Manzardo. It’s extremely possible he might be traded this offseason and the Mariners are a pure match. This daring prediction does not really feel daring in any respect. How about we spice it up and say Seattle overpays (“overpays”) and sends high shortstop prospect Felnin Celesten to the Guardians within the commerce?

7. Williams to Philadelphia, Helsley to Atlanta

Two NL Central groups have high-priced closers a 12 months away from free company. The Brewers determine to commerce Devin Williams as a result of he is costly (for them), and since a 12 months out from free company is once they are inclined to commerce their finest gamers, like Corbin Burnes final offseason. The Cardinals are in one thing of a tactical retreat. They’re calling it a reset fairly than a rebuild, and the very last thing a rebuilding resetting group wants is an expensive nearer inching towards free company. That makes Ryan Helsley a first-rate commerce candidate.

Our subsequent daring prediction has Williams and Helsley being traded to NL East rivals. Williams lands with the Phillies, Helsley with the Braves. Philadelphia has a transparent want for late-inning reduction assist with Carlos Estévez and Jeff Hoffman turning into free brokers, so Williams is a pure match. The Braves do not want a more in-depth — Raisel Iglesias is great — however there isn’t a such factor as too many good relievers. Helsley could be a dynamite setup man. My guess is we hear the Braves and Phillies (and others) linked to Helsley and Williams all through the offseason, and so they every wind up with one.

8. Anthony Santander’s contract is hailed as a discount

There appears to be a free agent who’s a match for each group every offseason and this winter’s “he is a match for each group” free agent is Anthony Santander, who slugged 44 residence runs with the Orioles. A switch-hitting outfielder with that sort of energy? What’s to not like? This daring prediction says that, whereas Santander will receives a commission handsomely, the overwhelming response might be that he obtained lower than anticipated, and whichever group indicators him obtained a discount. Nearly as good as Santander is — and he’s very good — he is now in his 30s, he had a .308 on-base proportion in 2024 and has a .311 on-base proportion in his final 2,400 plate appearances, and he is a legal responsibility within the outfield. He is not too dissimilar from Jorge Soler, who signed a three-year deal value $42 million final offseason. I feel Santander will get a contact extra (three years and $45 million?) and it is thought-about shockingly low when, in actuality, it is good.

9. The Cubs will disappoint their followers

I do not imply to select on Cubs followers. They’re nice. That is extra about calling out possession and the entrance workplace, who do not appear to have the abdomen to make an enormous splash and are as a substitute making an attempt to trend a contender out of mid-range free brokers and incremental upgrades. This daring prediction says that we’ll hear the Cubs linked to each vital free agent (Corbin Burnes and Juan Soto, most notably) and they’ll signal exactly zero of them. That does not imply they will not get higher! Solely that they will not be nearly as good as they could possibly be after posting equivalent 83-79 data in 2023 and 2024. The NL Central isn’t precisely a powerhouse division. Slightly extra funding from possession and risk-taking by the entrance workplace might put the Cubs on high. We predict it will not occur.

10. No group follows the Royals’ lead

The Royals went from 106 losses in 2023 to the ALDS in 2024 because of steps ahead from younger gamers like Cole Ragans and Bobby Witt Jr., and likewise as a result of they spent cash final offseason. They did not hit on all their free agent signings, however they hit massive on Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha, and people two had been instrumental in getting Kansas Metropolis again to the postseason. It is a blueprint groups coming off poor 2024 seasons can comply with. The Nationals and Pirates stand out as golf equipment with younger expertise base and a possibility to get to the postseason with some good spending. As a substitute, our remaining daring prediction says no group following Kansas Metropolis’s blueprint. The Royals are the exception, not the rule. Some groups appear content material to let rebuilds proceed endlessly.