Are you able to hear that? That is the sound of the tide turning for The Six Pack! It felt good to publish a 4-2 document final week as a result of we actually wanted it. We’re nonetheless below .500 on the season and have fairly the sports activities betting gap out of which to dig, however final week felt like the primary time this season once we not solely had a powerful learn of the state of affairs on this column, however we weren’t repeatedly punched within the face by unhealthy luck.

I can not assist however imagine we will win each single guess we make for the remainder of the season.

All school soccer betting odds beneath offered through BetMGM | Fanatics | DraftKings

Video games of the Week

No. 5 Georgia at No. 1 Texas: I took the below in final week’s sport between Ohio State and Oregon, and it was shortly made clear that will not be a winner. I then took a tough take into consideration what I used to be seeing. Earlier within the season, we noticed a bunch of factors scored in Georgia’s sport in opposition to Alabama, too. And what? There appear to be quite a lot of high-scoring video games between prime groups as of late — way over common.

So I dug into the numbers, and the sensation has assist. Going again to the 2019 season, there have been 30 video games performed between groups ranked within the prime 5 of the AP High 25 ballot. The over in these video games is 17-11-2. Now, traits are one factor, however they do not imply a lot with out there being a cause for his or her existence, and I believe I do know what it is perhaps.

You possibly can’t be elite in school soccer as of late with out an explosive, harmful offense. Being nice on each side of the ball is great, however you do not see many groups reaching the School Soccer Playoff with a horrible offense and lights-out protection. And irrespective of how good a protection is, it could solely accomplish that a lot to decelerate well-executed offense.

I believe we’ll see the same story play out in Texas on Saturday night time. The Longhorns’ offense is likely one of the greatest within the nation, and whereas it is had just a few tough moments, Georgia’s has confirmed to be harmful as properly when clicking. Plus, Georgia’s protection has not performed on the similar stage this season that we’re used to, and whereas Texas’ defensive numbers are unbelievable, what’s the most effective offense Texas has confronted? Michigan? Oklahoma? ULM? That complete is beginning to look a little bit low, is not it? The Decide: Over 55.5 (-110) through BetMGM

No. 7 Alabama at No. 11 Tennessee: We is not going to be making use of the identical over precept right here, however that is nonetheless a really fascinating sport. Tennessee has not carried out as I anticipated. I knew the protection could be good, however the offense has been one-dimensional. Nico Iamaleava has not lived as much as my expectations, and the offensive line has been sub-par. However I additionally get the sense this Volunteers offense is not removed from firing on all cylinders and having an enormous day. I’m wondering if it may very well be this week.

Alabama’s defensive numbers are sturdy total, however all of us keep in mind what occurred to this unit within the second half in opposition to Georgia. I would not be shocked to see Tennessee discover a comparable stage of success. Then there’s the offense, which has been too reliant on Jalen Milroe for my liking. Milroe took quite a lot of hits final week in opposition to South Carolina, and I fear about him carrying down because the season progresses. Additionally, the final time Alabama went on the street, it misplaced to Vanderbilt; and no offense to a beautiful Vandy crowd that night time, however the atmosphere at Neyland Stadium needs to be a bit completely different and tougher to beat. I haven’t got a ton of confidence in both of these two proper now, so I am taking the factors with the house crew and seeing what occurs. The Decide: Tennessee +3 (-105) through Fanatics

Lock of the Week

New Mexico at Utah State: I have never included it within the column each week as a result of I attempt to follow extra simple bets right here, however Utah State has been an ATM for me this season. It is horrible defensively, and betting the crew totals of its opponents has been very worthwhile. As has doing the identical for the groups New Mexico has performed. There is a cause the overall for this sport is as excessive as it’s: these defenses stink.

However we’re betting the below anyway. Totals within the 70s weren’t all that unusual two years in the past, however we hardly ever see them now, and there is a cause for it. Current modifications to clock guidelines have led to fewer possessions in video games, which has led to lower-scoring video games total. Sure, we nonetheless see the occasional 45-42 sport, however practically every part must go proper for that to occur within the fashionable atmosphere. How usually does that occur in school soccer? The Decide: Underneath 78.5 (-110) through BetMGM

Underdog of the Week

Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana: I’ve lengthy made some extent to say how troublesome it’s for any school soccer crew to get by means of a 12-game common season and not using a loss. If you mix the journey, schoolwork and every part else that goes into the game (together with groups filled with 18-24-year-old males who do not at all times assume clearly), sustaining perfection week in and week out is almost unimaginable. The groups that do it are sometimes essentially the most proficient groups that may present up and beat others after they aren’t at their greatest.

If you aren’t a type of groups, it is solely a matter of time earlier than you lose. Properly, Indiana, I am sorry, nevertheless it’s solely a matter of time earlier than you lose. Perhaps it isn’t this week! You possibly can beat Nebraska, however this unfold strikes me as being a little bit too massive. notably once I have a look at the dimensions benefit Nebraska has at its receiver and tight finish positions in opposition to your secondary. The Decide: Nebraska +6.5 (-105) through BetMGM

Explosive Offenses of the Week

Iowa at Michigan State: I discussed earlier that betting the crew totals of Utah State’s opponents has been an ATM in 2024, however what else has been? The over in Iowa video games. I do know, it is a sentence that seemingly should not make any sense, however the fact is the reality. Iowa has performed six video games this yr and the over is 5-1 as these matchups are ending a median of seven.58 factors over the overall.

But, right here we’re with Iowa taking part in one other sport with a complete set within the low 40s. Pay attention, the passing assault remains to be poor, however Kaleb Johnson and this Iowa speeding offense are ripping off chunk play after chunk play. It ought to proceed in opposition to Michigan State. Additionally, Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles places the soccer in harmful spots far too usually, which is a recipe for catastrophe in opposition to Iowa. The Hawkeyes may simply add factors on protection right here, too. The Decide: Over 40.5 (-108) through DraftKings

Binturong of the Week

Arizona State at Cincinnati: We made cash taking Arizona State final weekend in opposition to the Zombie Utes, however we’re going the opposite means this week. Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt suffered an harm in that win and will not play this week. That is unhealthy information for the Solar Devils as a result of I contemplate the downgrade from Leavitt to Jeff Sims to be appreciable. With out Leavitt, Arizona State must lean on an possibility speeding assault with Sims and Cam Skattebo. It may very well be efficient, however the true vulnerability of the Cincinnati protection has been within the air.

The place the Bearcats excel is within the pink zone. Their pink zone effectivity of 35.3% ranks fifth nationally, and the three.53 factors they’re permitting on pink zone possessions ranks thirteenth. I do not know what number of drives Arizona State will end with Cincinnati loading the field and never worrying about Sims’ arm. Lastly, the Cincinnati protection has completed a superb job forcing turnovers this yr, and Jeff Sims has turned the ball over so much throughout his profession. The Decide: Cincinnati -5 (-110) through DraftKings

SportsLine’s confirmed laptop mannequin is asking for 5 outright upsets in Week 8 of school soccer. Go to SportsLine now to see all of them, plus get unfold picks for each sport from the mannequin that simulates every sport 10,000 instances. 

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