However as is usually the case, details typically want context, so how about I present some? You already know what’s not unusual? Coaches, even nice ones, having a dropping document towards top-five groups. Are you aware why that’s? It is easy: High-five groups do not lose typically. In the event that they did, they would not be ranked within the high 5. Within the Faculty Soccer Playoff period, groups ranked wherever between Nos. 1 by way of 5 in a given week have a document of 603-130. That is a successful proportion of 82.3%.

Ryan Day’s win proportion towards groups which have misplaced 17.7% of their video games during the last decade is 25%.  Nonetheless, maybe this is not sufficient context, so let’s present extra. First, we’ll evaluate Ryan Day’s document towards top-five groups to the different 9 coaches who made up the highest 10 of our preseason Energy 4 Coach Rankings. This is how they stack up in contrast by most wins towards top-five groups for the reason that 2019 season when Ryan Day took over the Buckeyes.

Regardless of Day’s general struggles, the one two energetic coaches with extra wins towards top-five groups in that span are Georgia’s Kirby Good and Alabama’s Kalen DeBoer. Of the ten listed, the one ones with a successful document towards top-five groups are Good, DeBoer and Utah’s Kyle Whittingham, however Good’s the one one to have performed greater than 4 such video games.

Good is the one energetic coach with a successful document towards top-five groups having performed a minimum of 5 video games, and that features different coaches not listed right here. Different huge names like Lane Kiffin, James Franklin, Luke Fickell and Eli Drinkwitz are a mixed 0-21 towards them. Miami’s Mario Cristobal is the one different energetic coach to have a couple of win towards a top-five staff exterior that record of 10. He is 2-1 with each victories coming throughout his time at Oregon.

Now, if we wish to embody Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh, issues change a bit. Saban went 6-3 towards top-five groups over the ultimate 5 years at Alabama, whereas Harbaugh went 4-3, with most of these wins being over Ryan Day.

There’s additionally the comparability between Day and the person he changed, City Meyer. On the floor, it is simple to see why Ohio State followers are upset about Day’s efficiency in these video games contemplating Meyer’s document!

However here is one key distinction that shouldn’t be ignored, however typically is once we discuss coaches who “cannot win The Large One.”

The Large One is the one sport Day has had hassle successful.

Six of his 9 losses at Ohio State have been towards top-five groups. The opposite three losses have been all towards ranked groups (No. 12 Oregon and No. 6 Michigan in 2021; a loss to No. 9 Missouri in final 12 months’s Cotton Bowl, a sport Ohio State was down key starters). The worst staff he is ever misplaced to was ranked No. 12 on the time and completed the season 10-4! One among Mario Cristobal’s two top-five wins was towards Ohio State in 2021, and Miami was so impressed by it they employed him away from Oregon and he hasn’t overwhelmed a top-five staff since — however I digress.

Let’s take a look at these high 10 coaches from earlier than and see what number of of their losses since 2019 have come towards top-five groups.

Solely two of Meyer’s 9 losses at Ohio State got here towards top-five groups. 4 got here towards groups who weren’t ranked in any respect.

One other truth value contemplating: All eight of Ohio State’s video games towards top-five competitors beneath Day have come when Ohio State itself was ranked within the high 5.

So, lengthy story quick, Day is a coach who wins each sport he is alleged to however loses to elite competitors, too. On the similar time, he additionally wins towards elite competitors extra typically than most others.

None of which is to say Ohio State followers don’t have any proper to be pissed off. Good beats elite groups and has gained nationwide titles. Saban did the identical, and Harbaugh has, too. That is the expectation for Ohio State, and that is the expectation followers have for Day. So far, he hasn’t met it.

On the similar time, few can. So, for those who’re a type of Ohio State followers calling for Day’s job, firing him is far easier than discovering a substitute who can accomplish what you need. That is likely to be a very powerful context of all.

Let’s get into extra storylines within the Large Ten popping out of Week 7 earlier than making some picks for the Week 8 video games with odds through FanDuel Sportsbook.

Dan Lanning’s signature win

OK, in order that’s over 1,000 phrases on the loser of the weekend’s greatest sport, so it is solely proper I dedicate some house to the coach whose staff gained the sport. In brief, that was an enormous win for the Oregon Geese beneath Dan Lanning. As you possibly can see by these charts above, till Saturday night time, Lanning had hassle breaking by way of towards elite competitors himself.

The primary of Lanning’s two losses got here in his first sport at Oregon, a loss to Georgia that appeared inconceivable from the beginning. It was the shortcoming to recover from the hump final 12 months that was hanging over this system’s head coming into 2024. Twice the Geese had an opportunity to take down Washington, and twice they got here up quick in 2023 solely to look at their rivals attain the nationwide championship sport.

Oregon’s had loads of success in latest many years, however for no matter purpose, it was a program that all the time bumped its head towards a ceiling and could not break by way of. The Geese broke by way of Saturday night time in a loud, frenzied setting. It was a win that put them within the driver’s seat to achieve the Large Ten Championship Sport and gave their playoff resume an enormous enhance.

It additionally felt like the start of what may very well be the largest rivalry within the Large Ten for the subsequent decade. Sure, Oregon and Ohio State have extra historic rivals, but it surely’s not troublesome to check lots extra top-five battles between these two within the years to come back.

Interview of the week

Iowa scored 40 factors for the second time this season on Saturday, but it surely wasn’t an ideal day for each Hawkeye. One fan suffered the unlucky destiny of taking a kickoff on to the face. Fortunately, whether or not by way of sheer dedication and grit, or maybe another methodology of means to numb the ache, the fan was in a position to battle by way of and do a radio interview about it throughout the sport.

Three scorching takes

Blazing — The Large Ten West was shot down proper earlier than its prime: They shut it down as a result of they knew what was coming! An period of absolute dominance! For thus a few years, the Large Ten West was ridiculed as a division that includes 13-10 video games, however did you see what occurred this weekend? Six of the seven groups that when referred to as that lovely mess of a division house have been in motion, and Minnesota — in w win — was the one one to attain fewer than 37 factors.

Northwestern, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin and Purdue averaged 43.6 factors. Purdue scored 49 factors and misplaced!

It is clear that Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State begged the Large Ten to disband the divisions out of worry of being embarrassed within the years to come back.

Will go away a scar if touched — This Saturday is Michigan’s final stand: Michigan remains to be ranked in each main polls. Ought to or not it’s? I do not assume so, no, seeing how its greatest win thus far is a 3-3 USC staff and it misplaced its final sport to a Washington staff that simply gave up 40 factors to Iowa.

No matter its rating, Michigan’s showdown with Illinois this weekend seems like an absolute must-win for the Wolverines. Michigan is a small favourite within the sport, but it surely’s a rating that feels primarily based extra on popularity (or maybe Illinois’ second-half efficiency towards Purdue) than what we have really seen from the Wolverines this 12 months.

If Michigan wins, it is 5-2 and will construct momentum with a follow-up victory towards Michigan State. But when the Wolverines lose, they’re going to fall to 4-3 and nonetheless need to play Oregon, Ohio State, and, sure, Indiana. I nonetheless assume Michigan would get to a bowl sport with a loss to the Illini, but it surely’d be removed from a certainty.

This feels heat — USC is not unhealthy: OK, so I simply dissed the Trojans a bit by dismissing them as Michigan’s greatest win, and whereas I am certain USC followers are bored with the ethical victories, I imply it after I say USC is the most effective 3-3 staff within the nation. Sure, they blew it late towards Penn State, very like they blew it late towards Michigan. Nonetheless, I am unable to assist however really feel just like the Trojans are taking part in nicely general, and whereas the Minnesota loss hurts, issues ought to get a lot better over the second half of the season.

USC’s subsequent 5 video games are towards Maryland, Rutgers, Washington, Nebraska and UCLA. It is not straightforward, but it surely’s much more manageable than a gap slate that included video games towards a Penn State and LSU staff which are each sitting within the high 10 proper now. Oh, and USC did beat LSU! Folks appear to have forgotten that fairly shortly.

Anyway, my level is that whereas USC is out of the Large Ten race, it isn’t inconceivable to assume this staff can get to eight wins within the 12 months and possibly even end it off with a win over Notre Dame.

The factor about time zones

We aren’t achieved offering context to details this week. Earlier than Saturday’s video games, there was a pattern floating across the school soccer universe about how Large Ten groups that traveled a minimum of two time zones to play a convention sport this season have been 1-8. It was a pattern meant to showcase the potential impression of a convention that had expanded to incorporate each coasts.

It was additionally a pattern that lacked a severe stage of context. Initially, I do know it was meant as a Large Ten stat, however to not embody nonconference video games is foolish. Does journey solely impression convention video games?

The true mark heading into final week’s video games was 2-10. There have been 4 extra video games on Saturday that noticed Large Ten groups journey a minimum of two time zones, and so they went 2-2 in these video games, bringing the document to 4-12.

However guess what? The 4-12 mark would not inform you that the favorites in these 16 video games are 13-3. The third loss was Ohio State dropping as a street favourite to Oregon by some extent. The opposite two losses have been additionally by street favorites, and each have been USC, who misplaced as a favourite towards Michigan and Minnesota. Of the three losses, solely USC’s loss to Minnesota featured an expansion larger than one rating, so it is the one one which may very well be thought-about a “main upset.”

In different phrases, the groups that have been anticipated to win have gained at a really excessive fee regardless of the journey. So, how a lot impression has journey actually had?

Going with my intestine

Each week I decide the Large Ten video games towards the unfold primarily based on nothing however my intestine response to the quantity. No digging into numbers — simply vibes, child. I even monitor my document to embarrass myself publicly. 

All Large Ten school soccer odds through FanDuel Sportsbook. Take a look at the most recent FanDuel promo to get within the sport.

No. 24 Michigan at No. 22 Illinois: Oddly sufficient, I would have appreciated Michigan’s probabilities extra if Illinois hadn’t blown an enormous lead towards Purdue within the second half and wanted additional time to flee an embarrassing loss. If that hadn’t occurred, I believe Illinois could be favored. Offensively, it has been the much better staff, and whereas Michigan’s protection has been robust general, it is had issues towards passing assaults, and Illinois can transfer the ball by way of the air. However can Michigan rating sufficient on offense on the street to cowl as a favourite? I am not so certain. Illinois +3.5

No. 2 Oregon at Purdue — Purdue +27.5
Nebraska at No. 16 Indiana — Nebraska +6.5
Wisconsin at Northwestern — Northwestern +6.5
UCLA at Rutgers — Rutgers -4.5
USC at Maryland — USC -7.5
Iowa at Michigan State — Iowa -6.5

Final Week: 3-4
Season: 42-29-1