When Purdue fired offensive coordinator Graham Harrell following the crew’s third straight lack of the season it wasn’t a lot of a shock, given the Boilermakers’ struggles on offense. Purdue scored 49 factors in its opener in opposition to Indiana State, however simply 38 factors in opposition to three FBS groups since.
Whether or not or not the choice modifications something for the Boilermakers this season, or if Harrell was actually the issue, may very well be debated for some time. The first query I requested myself was, “I ponder who’s subsequent?”
The Harrell information is a reminder that in-season teaching modifications are taking place earlier and earlier. One might argue that the choice to fireside Harrell was a transfer that will have been throwing a bone to an indignant Purdue fanbase that is not happy with the 5-11 mark underneath Ryan Walters, who himself is starting to really feel warmth on his seat.
However Walters is hardly alone.
Wanting across the Huge Ten, loads of coaches might discover themselves in bother ought to their fortunes not change. Let’s take a look at them, and we’ll begin with Walters. To be clear, that is merely me every state of affairs and the way issues usually play out. In spite of everything, the overwhelming majority of coaches are employed to be fired. The Nick Sabans of the world are outliers.
Ryan Walters, Purdue
12 months 2: 5-11, 3-7 in Huge Ten
The Walters rent wasn’t overly fashionable with the Purdue fan base, which meant it was a bit extra important for the brand new regime to get off to a fast begin, no matter whether or not it was an inexpensive expectation or not. It hasn’t occurred. Purdue adopted up an 8-5 season in 2022 with a 4-8 mark in Walters’ first season, and the crew’s three convention wins got here in opposition to Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana — three groups that went a mixed 7-20 within the Huge Ten. Of Purdue’s eight losses, solely three had been of the one-score selection (and a kind of was Fresno State at dwelling); the opposite 5 got here by a mean of 23 factors.
This season’s three losses have come by a mean of 31.3 factors, the worst being a 66-7 drubbing from Notre Dame. Making issues worse is that two of the groups Purdue beat final season (Illinois and Indiana) are off to sturdy begins to 2024, and Indiana — the Boilermakers’ largest rival — is doing it within the first yr with a brand new coach.
Additionally, it could actually’t be ignored that the offense is not the one downside. Sure, it has been dreadful, however the protection hasn’t been significantly better. Purdue ranks 104th nationally in factors allowed per drive, ninetieth in success price, and a hundred and twenty fifth in EPA per play. And that is should you embrace the 49-0 win over Indiana State. Solely video games in opposition to FBS competitors, Purdue ranks 122nd, 107th and one hundred and thirtieth in those self same classes.
Walters at present has nothing on which to hold his hat as a result of Purdue is not doing something nicely.
the remainder of the schedule, 5 of Purdue’s remaining eight video games are in opposition to groups at present ranked within the AP Prime 25, and three of these are on the street. Saturday’s street journey to Wisconsin is without doubt one of the extra winnable video games remaining, however now Purdue has to play that sport days after altering its offensive coordinator.
My intestine tells me Walters shall be again for 2025 until the underside actually falls out and the state of affairs is deemed untenable. Nevertheless, until Purdue turns issues round and begins profitable extra video games, he might enter 2025 on the most popular seat within the convention.
Mike Locksley, Maryland
12 months 6: 31-30, 14-29 in Huge Ten
For readability, I am not together with Locksley’s six video games as Terrapins’ interim coach in 2015 as a part of his document at Maryland. Nonetheless, even with out that 1-5 mark in 2015, Locksley’s total numbers with the Terps are lower than spectacular. Sure, Maryland is 31-30 total and has been to bowl video games every of the final three seasons. These are all good issues.
On the identical time, the Terps have but to have a profitable document in convention play underneath Locksley, and so they by no means completed greater than fourth within the Huge Ten East. The hope was that the removing of divisions and of Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State from the schedule each season would see an uptick in convention wins.
That hasn’t occurred but. Maryland misplaced 42-28 at Indiana final week and is now 0-2 within the Huge Ten. Its different loss was at dwelling to a Michigan State crew that was crushed by Ohio State in East Lansing. Ohio State and Michigan aren’t on the schedule this season, however Maryland remains to be 0-2 in opposition to the previous East Division. That drops Locksley’s total convention document to 14-29, that means the Terps are profitable fewer than a 3rd of their Huge Ten video games, and I do not understand how a lot of an enchancment we’ll see over the remainder of the season.
Northwestern at dwelling after this week’s bye is winnable, however how assured are you that the Terps can beat USC, Rutgers or Iowa at dwelling? How about street video games in opposition to Minnesota, Oregon and Penn State? If Maryland wins two of these video games, it would end the yr 5-7, and Locksley’s convention document shall be 16-34.
On one hand, you may level out that Locksley could have wrung out as a lot as is realistically potential for this program within the Huge Ten. Then again, fan bases are inclined to get bored shortly once they do not see appreciable enchancment over time, and Maryland could really feel prefer it wants a reset.
I would not name it probably, however I sense there is a fairly good probability this job opens if issues do not flip round.
P.J. Fleck, Minnesota
12 months 8: 52-37, 29-34 in Huge Ten
That is one other case the place I am starting to surprise if the wedding has run its course. Fleck has had loads of success at Minnesota. He led the Gophers to an 11-2 document in 2019 and adopted it up with nine-win seasons in 2021 and 2022. If we do not embrace the COVID season — and actually, there are few instances the place we must always — Minnesota has been to 5 straight bowl video games and received all of them.
However the Gophers are additionally 8-10 because the begin of 2023 and 3-8 within the Huge Ten. Proper now, Minnesota followers would inform you they may very well be 4-7 if the officers in Ann Arbor final weekend weren’t blind. They could have a case, however I do not know that it in the end issues. If you break the Huge Ten down into tiers, many of the groups you’d put alongside the Gophers are trending up. The Gophers are going the wrong way.
Fleck has cycled by way of offensive coordinators in current seasons, however none have had a noticeable influence. There was a change at quarterback over the offseason, too, with Max Brosmer changing Athan Kaliakmanis. Brosmer is at present ranked twelfth in passer effectivity within the Huge Ten, whereas Kaliakmanis is ninth on a Rutgers crew off to a 4-0 begin.
Following final week’s loss, the Gophers offense ranks twelfth within the Huge Ten in factors per possession, eleventh in success price and fifteenth in explosive play price. Sooner or later, it’s a must to ask the query if it is the offensive coordinator that is the issue or the general philosophy.
If there’s excellent news, it is that loads of winnable video games stay on the schedule. The dangerous information is most of these winnable video games are on the street, in order that they’re rather less winnable than you would like! All of which has me questioning if either side won’t contemplate trying elsewhere this winter.
Nevertheless issues break down, there isn’t any debating Fleck has been probably the most profitable Minnesota coach of the fashionable period. His .584 profitable share ranks fourth all-time amongst Minnesota coaches who’ve coached at the very least 40 video games, however not one of the three coaches forward of him coached the Gophers within the final 75 seasons.
Phil Longo, Wisconsin offensive coordinator
The firing of 1 offensive coordinator impressed this inspection, so it is solely becoming we embrace one other coordinator in it. Little has gone as hoped after Wisconsin made the splashy rent of Luke Fickell. After going 7-6 final season, the Badgers are at present 2-2 and weren’t practically as aggressive with USC because the 38-21 last rating may lead you to imagine.
Nonetheless, even with one other mediocre season, it is arduous to imagine Fickell shall be going anyplace, however someone could should fall on their sword. Longo appears the probably candidate.
Much like the Harrell state of affairs, it is arduous responsible Longo solely for Wisconsin’s offensive issues. Clearly, the Tyler Van Dyke damage issues, however the Badgers offense wasn’t performing nicely with him, both. It has been extra in regards to the Jimmys and Joes than the Xs and Os, however coaches are accountable for their rosters, so Longo should shoulder a few of the blame there.
Wherever you wish to level the finger, there isn’t any escaping the actual fact Wisconsin ranks thirteenth within the Huge Ten in factors per possession, 14th in EPA per play, and lifeless final in explosive play price. You’ll be able to argue that the loss to Alabama skews these numbers total, however the unit additionally struggled in opposition to Western Michigan, South Dakota and USC.
Wisconsin’s subsequent three video games are in opposition to Purdue, Rutgers and Northwestern, and my intestine tells me they will be important video games not just for Wisconsin’s season, but additionally for Longo’s tenure. If there is not enchancment, I would not be stunned at a shakeup of the offensive workers in Madison this offseason.
Coach of the Week
I like Indiana coach Curt Cignetti with all my coronary heart. I solely want that I had been 20 years youthful and much more athletic so I might play for him. The Hoosiers are 5-0 for the primary time since 1957 after beating Maryland. They’re additionally No. 23 within the AP Prime 25 and ranked for the primary time since 2021. Nevertheless, it needs to be identified the Hoosiers had been solely ranked within the preseason AP ballot in 2021 attributable to their 6-2 document in 2020 (there’s that COVID yr once more!) and instantly fell out upon dropping their opener to Iowa by 28 factors.
Stats of the Week
On its opening drive in opposition to Minnesota, the Michigan offense went 79 yards on 9 performs, ending it off with a 27-yard landing run from Kalel Mullings. On Michigan’s subsequent 10 possessions, which had been unscripted, the Wolverines managed 164 yards over 51 performs. Their last two landing drives coated 16 yards and 11 yards, respectively.
Eight of Michigan’s 11 possessions completed with fewer than 20 yards.
In the long run, the Wolverines received, and that is what issues, however should you’re questioning why a crew ranked No. 10 within the AP ballot is a 3-point underdog on the street in opposition to a Washington crew that simply misplaced to Rutgers, begin there.
Three sizzling takes
Blazing — Neglect 9-Windiana, the Hoosiers are profitable 10 video games: Am I drunk on the Hoosier Kool-Assist? Perhaps, however I prefer it. The Hoosiers are 5-0, and there is a sturdy argument to be made that “they ain’t performed no one,” however have you ever seen the schedule? There aren’t many “somebodys” on it.
The best way I see it, the one sport by which I do not give this crew an actual shot at profitable is the street journey to Ohio State. They will beat everyone else on the schedule, together with Michigan, until that Michigan offense takes a big step ahead.
Will depart a scar if touched — Michigan State is not going to make a bowl: Not one thing you’d count on after beginning 3-0 with a street win in opposition to Maryland, however the final two weeks have shaken my religion within the Spartans. Getting blown out by Ohio State is not one thing I will maintain in opposition to you, however that loss in opposition to Boston School was regarding.
They nonetheless have street video games in opposition to Oregon, Michigan and Illinois, all of whom are ranked and shall be tough to defeat. Assuming they lose these, they’d have to win three of 4 at dwelling in opposition to Iowa, Indiana, Purdue and Rutgers.
This feels heat — Penn State and Oregon are the one Huge Ten groups who can dream of competing with Ohio State: I am actually out on a limb with this one! Ohio State beat Michigan State by 31 in East Lansing, and it did not appear like the Buckeyes performed their A-game. As a lot as I like Indiana, the Hoosiers should not have the expertise degree to beat this crew, and Michigan is a top-10 crew in title solely. They have not performed something prefer it.
In the meantime, Oregon appears to have gotten its act collectively and Penn State’s 21-7 win over Illinois Saturday evening was extra dominant than the rating suggests.
Coolest Factor of the Week
Talking of Penn State, would you take a look at what Nittany Lions operating again Nicholas Singleton does on this play vs. Illinois? If that does not get you proper within the core of your football-loving lizard mind, what is going to?
Angriest Run of the Week
I am telling you, between that play from Singleton, this run from Rutgers’ Kyle Monangai, and a few of the blitz pickups I noticed from Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson, I am assured in saying the Huge Ten’s operating backs can beat up your operating backs.
Going with my intestine
Each week I choose the Huge Ten video games in opposition to the unfold based mostly on nothing however my intestine response to the quantity. No digging into numbers — simply vibes, child. I even monitor my document to embarrass myself publicly. Odds through SportsLine consensus.
Iowa at No. 3 Ohio State: In the event you learn B1G Time final week, you understand I am excessive on Iowa operating again Kaleb Johnson and what he is carried out for the Hawkeyes to date this season. Nevertheless, Johnson just isn’t sufficient to beat Ohio State. I’ve additionally talked about on this column in current weeks that Iowa’s secondary has allowed extra huge performs than we have seen from them in recent times. That is not excellent news whenever you’re about to face Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith! The final time these two met, Ohio State received 54-10. I do not know if it’s going to be practically as lopsided this time, but it surely may very well be. Ohio State -20.5
Michigan State at No. 6 Oregon — Oregon -24
UCLA at No. 7 Penn State — UCLA +28.5
Purdue at Wisconsin — Purdue +12
No. 23 Indiana at Northwestern — Northwestern +14
Rutgers at Nebraska — Nebraska -7
No. 10 Michigan at Washington — Washington -3
No. 11 USC at Minnesota — USC -9
Final Week: 5-3
2024 Season: 36-22
