Who’s obtained it higher than the Michigan Wolverines? Lots of people proper now. As if being greater than a landing underdog at house in opposition to Texas final week wasn’t sufficient, the Wolverines misplaced to Texas by 19 in a recreation that by no means felt even that shut.
The offense failed to supply any sort of menace for the second straight recreation, and after two weeks of motion, Michigan’s offense is among the worst within the Huge Ten. When you’re searching for one space the workforce has finished nicely, it is ending within the purple zone; the Wolverines are averaging 5.0 factors per purple zone journey, which ranks fifth within the convention.
The issue is barely three of Michigan’s 21 offensive possessions have reached the purple zone for a charge of 14.29%, which ranks final within the league, far behind everyone else. It is one in all a mess of stats the place the Michigan offense is hanging out on the backside of the Huge Ten.
Stat (Huge Ten rank) |
1.67 (fifteenth) |
4.7 (seventeenth) |
37% (18th) |
-0.14 (seventeenth) |
8.5% (sixteenth) |
31.62% (14th) |
What’s scary in the event you’re Michigan is that there is not an apparent answer as a result of it is not one a part of the offense that is failing you. The offensive line has not been superb in opposition to both Fresno State or Texas, which has impacted each the run and go recreation. When dropping again, Davis Warren has caught loads of warmth for his efficiency, however you do not see Michigan receivers getting a lot separation from defenders, both. It actually is an ensemble efficiency.
One factor that may assist issues is Michigan selecting a lane at QB, and that begins with stopping the musical chairs act with Davis Warren and Alex Orji. It is onerous to say Michigan is popping to Orji too typically in video games when he is performed solely 35 snaps throughout his profession, however 11 of these snaps have are available in 2024 already. Solely two of these snaps have been a go this season, and whereas one was a landing (on a brief go behind the road of scrimmage), it is clear as day opponents usually are not nervous about Orji’s arm.
MORE: What led to Michigan not with the ability to decide on stable QB possibility
When Orji traces up at QB, opponents do not want Conor Stallions to inform them what’s coming — they’re prepared for it. On the season, Orji is 1 of two for 3 yards passing and has seven carries for 31 yards as a rusher. Final 12 months, on a workforce that went on to win a nationwide title and had a top-10 draft decide at QB, Orji by no means threw a go in 16 snaps and rushed for 86 yards on 15 carries. These numbers aren’t horrible, however they don’t seem to be almost ok to disrupt your offense, both.
That is exactly what Orji does: disrupts the offense.
Life is already powerful while you’re enjoying an inexperienced offensive line, and asking them to organize for 2 totally different offenses that match two quarterbacks with totally different types of play solely makes it tougher.
Now, I am not right here to make a loud proclamation that it needs to be Warren’s job and his alone. If Michigan needs to go together with Orji and identify him the starter, that is high-quality with me, too. My solely thought is that that you must decide one and keep it up. And in the event you do decide Warren, then the backup needs to be somebody who suits Warren’s profile. Given Orji was the No. 2 final 12 months and the favourite to win the job throughout the offseason however Warren is the present starter, I assume that is the route Michigan would take if it did make the transfer.
However if you’d like both of them to have success within the present scenario, forcing them to play with the specter of the opposite looming over their shoulder on each snap will not assist.
Not absolutely bought on Nebraska
Nebraska followers really feel unimaginable this week, and I do not blame them. The Cornhuskers are 2-0 and ranked within the AP High 25 after a 28-10 win over Colorado. It is the primary time the Cornhuskers have been ranked because the 2019 season, and that rating lasted just one week into the season. They started the 12 months at No. 24 within the preseason ballot, however following a Week 2 loss to Colorado, they had been dropped and hadn’t returned till this week.
On high of that, you’ve got stud freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, who has seemed stable and made some spectacular throws, in addition to a protection that is allowed 17 factors in two video games. You then look across the league and see Michigan get wrecked whereas Penn State and Oregon each struggled to win in opposition to inferior groups. So, you begin pondering, “what if?”
Nicely, I am not ruling it out, however I am not inhaling what’s in these purple balloons, both.
If you look beneath the hood, there are nonetheless some potential warning indicators. UTEP, whom the Huskers beat 40-7 final week, adopted up with a 27-24 loss to Southern Utah. As for Colorado, nicely, let’s simply say that workforce might not be almost nearly as good as the quantity of protection it will get. And whereas 2-0 is 2-0, there are some numbers that do not look unimaginable.
The down-to-down efficiency of the Nebraska offense has been hit and miss. The workforce’s success charge of 43.9% in opposition to two dangerous defenses ranks eleventh within the convention and 61st nationally. The offensive’s explosive play charge of 10.8% ranks ninetieth, and the purple zone efficiency scares me.
The Huskers are scoring solely 3.9 factors per purple zone possession, and that ranks 97th within the nation.
Additionally, whereas Nebraska killed itself with turnovers final 12 months and has been significantly better there to begin 2024 (with some luck, as you will see under), the workforce dedicated 12 penalties for 105 yards in opposition to Colorado on Saturday. It now ranks 111th in penalty yards per recreation at 70.
Now, it is solely two video games, so the pattern dimension is not almost sufficient to persuade anyone it is a long-term downside. Nevertheless it’s one thing to control as a result of whereas Northern Iowa will not pose too huge a menace, convention play is correct across the nook, and even the “simple” video games on the schedule shall be harder than anyone Nebraska’s seen up to now.
Mascot of the week
Northwestern misplaced to Duke in time beyond regulation Friday evening, however this was nonetheless a superb peformance by Willie the Wildcat. You possibly can’t educate this. These are pure mascot instincts.
Enjoyable truth of the week
Within the first half Saturday, Iowa dropped again to go 19 instances and ran the ball 17 instances. It averaged 5.4 yards per play and outscored Iowa State 13-0.
Within the second half, Iowa dropped again to go 11 instances and ran the ball 21 instances. It averaged 3.5 yards per play and was outscored 20-6.
It makes you assume.
Panic button for Oregon?
Oregon is 2-0 on the season and has not seemed nice in both win. It was simple to put in writing off the slender victory over Idaho as a result of first-week jitters, accidents to the offensive line and maybe an eye fixed towards Week 2’s opponent, Boise State.
However issues weren’t significantly better in opposition to Boise State, who could be a significantly better workforce than its rival Idaho however should not be threatening Oregon the best way they did if the Geese are the legit Huge Ten and nationwide title menace all of us thought they’d be. I do not care how good Ashton Jeanty is — and Ashton Jeanty may be very, superb.
As soon as once more, the Geese had been with out a few starters on their offensive line, and it confirmed. Not solely did they permit one other 4 sacks (that is seven sacks allowed in two video games after permitting solely 5 all final season), however even when we take away the misplaced sack yardage, the Geese averaged solely 4.4 yards per keep on the bottom. James Jordan completed with 102 yards on 17 carries, which was sturdy, however I fear concerning the lack of huge performs.
Final season, the Oregon offense had an explosive rush charge of 14.0%, the seventh-best mark within the nation. The Geese are presently at 4.1%, and that is a lot decrease at 119th. I am not hitting the panic button till that is nonetheless the case when the offensive line is at full energy, however it’s one thing to look at.
Meme of the week
It is becoming that this meme was made by Ohio State followers about Michigan as a result of we’re two weeks into B1G Time and I have not written a lot about Ohio State but. There hasn’t been a lot to put in writing about, although. I’ve watched each Buckeyes’ wins over Akron and Western Michigan, and there is nothing extraordinary to report.
Ohio State seems to be each bit nearly as good as all of us thought it could. Maybe the one shock is Jeremiah Smith being even higher than marketed, and most everyone thought he could be superb.
I am not making any grand conclusions concerning the convention in early September, however it seems like a fairly important hole between the Buckeyes and everybody else.
Catch of the week
Between this seize and the toe-drag-swag Zakhari Franklin displayed within the fourth quarter to maneuver the chains and assist Illinois put Kansas to mattress, I believe the Illini are fairly completely happy they obtained him out of the portal from Ole Miss. Illinois’ 23-17 win over Kansas ended the workforce’s six-game shedding streak in house sellouts, which is a outstanding stat while you sit again and give it some thought.
Three Sizzling Takes
Each week I promise to ship three opinions that might very simply be confirmed unsuitable within the close to future. The takes will vary from Blazing to This Feels Heat, indicating how probably they’re to be confirmed false.
Blazing — Northwestern will not win a Huge Ten recreation: I touched on it earlier, however the Wildcats misplaced at house to Duke in time beyond regulation Friday evening. Within the larger image, it was a tricky blow to Northwestern’s bowl hopes as a result of it felt like a win it needed to have to succeed in six on the season.
However I do not know if it will even matter come the top of the 12 months. I do know Northwestern was the shock of 2023, however by way of two weeks, I’ve seen little to be keen about from this workforce. We knew the offense could be a wrestle, and it has been. The Wildcats wrestle to maneuver the ball constantly, lack huge performs and do not end drives. Defensively, they have not allowed lots of factors, however on a down-to-down foundation, they appear common. Additionally, I am undecided how good the offenses of Miami (OH) and Duke will show to be.
Once I have a look at the schedule, I see lots of video games in opposition to groups I believed could be extra winnable than I do now. Highway video games in opposition to Washington, Maryland, Iowa, Purdue and Michigan shall be tough, and what number of of their “house” video games in opposition to Indiana, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Illinois do you’re feeling nice about?
Will go away a scar if touched — Aidan Chiles is probably the most thrilling participant within the convention: Michigan State landed a reasonably large win for his or her bowl hopes Saturday, beating Maryland 27-24 on the highway of their first Huge Ten recreation beneath Jonathan Smith. And my man Aidan Chiles had an unimaginable stat line.
Chiles threw for 363 yards and averaged 9.3 yards per try. He additionally threw three touchdowns to go together with three interceptions. Each single snap is an journey, and I find it irresistible.
I do not want each QB to be good and polished. I will take the Chaos Agent, too, notably after they have the expertise Chiles has as a result of this child unleashes some completely unimaginable throws. You do not at all times know the place they are going, however they’re mesmerizing all the identical. Plus, he is nonetheless solely 18, and he is enjoying for a coach with a historical past of growth. When you iron out a number of the wrinkles, be careful.
This feels heat — There isn’t any method Michigan reaches the Faculty Soccer Playoff: I am not going to pile on any additional — I’ve mentioned sufficient about Michigan already — however I am assured that based mostly on what I’ve seen, the Wolverines will not return to the Faculty Soccer Playoff for a fourth straight season. The protection remains to be ok that I count on the Wolverines will beat the groups they’re purported to beat, however video games in opposition to USC, Ohio State and Oregon will in all probability look much more just like the Texas recreation.
Identify to study
Possibly I am underestimating the depth of information of most Huge Ten followers, however forgive me if I am not able to assume everybody is aware of the identify of Rutgers’ beginning working again. His identify is Kyle Monangai, and if you do not know who he’s, he is No. 5 in purple. Yeah, that offended ball of muscle working over your center linebacker.
Monangai had one other nice recreation in opposition to Akron, dashing for a Rutgers document 208 yards and three touchdowns. He is now as much as 373 yards and 4 touchdowns on the season. At his present charge, he’ll end the common season with 2,238 yards and 24 touchdowns.
Going with my intestine
Each week I decide the Huge Ten video games in opposition to the unfold based mostly on nothing however my intestine response to the quantity. No digging into numbers — simply vibes, child. I even monitor my document to embarrass myself publicly. Odds by way of SportsLine consensus.
No. 4 Alabama at Wisconsin: I get the sturdy sense that we will see an SEC workforce beat up on a Huge Ten workforce in a Huge Ten stadium for the second week in a row. Whereas I do not imagine Alabama is nearly as good as Texas, that is extra about my emotions for Wisconsin in the mean time. I wrote in final week’s column that Wisconsin could be the brand new Iowa, and Wisconsin’s efficiency in opposition to South Dakota did little to alleviate issues. Additionally, Badgers linebacker Jake Chaney will miss the primary half of the sport after being ejected for focusing on final week, and that actually will not assist issues! Alabama -16
Arkansas State at No. 17 Michigan — Michigan -22.5
Central Michigan at Illinois — Illinois -20
No. 9 Oregon at Oregon State — Oregon -16.5
No. 18 Notre Dame at Purdue — Purdue +11.5
Nevada at Minnesota — Nevada +16.5
Washington State at Washington — Washington State +4
Troy at Iowa — Iowa -22.5
Indiana at UCLA — Indiana -2.5
Maryland at Virginia — Virginia +2.5
There aren’t any traces for Huge Ten video games in opposition to FCS competitors as of publication.
Final Week: 8-4
2024 Season: 18-11