The Dodgers and the Pirates will proceed their weekend sequence at 9 p.m. ET with a recreation that contains a juicy subplot: the second profession assembly between Los Angeles’ celebrity DH Shohei Ohtani and Pittsburgh’s rookie ace Paul Skenes — two of probably the most compelling athletes on this planet, regardless of the game of the league. 

Ohtani and Skenes beforehand squared off again in early June, when Skenes was weeks into his big-league profession. The following months have solely added gravitas to the matchup. Whereas Ohtani has furthered his case for turning into the primary full-time designated hitter to win a Most Helpful Participant Award (he continues to progress in his restoration as a pitcher, however he isn’t anticipated to return to the mound in-game till subsequent season), Skenes is making an attempt to develop into the primary participant to ever begin the All-Star Sport and win the Rookie of the 12 months and Cy Younger Awards the yr after being drafted. (Fernando Valenzuela checked these first three packing containers. Nonetheless, he wasn’t drafted, and his sensible ascent occurred throughout a part of his third skilled season.)

With due respect to the eventual Supervisor of the 12 months, it is conceivable that Ohtani and Skenes will take house the Nationwide League’s three greatest particular person awards. As such, we expect it is truthful to jot down {that a} assembly of this magnitude deserves extra consideration. With that in thoughts, let’s dive in on three issues to learn about Ohtani-Skenes 2.

1. Skenes received first spherical, Ohtani first battle

We suppose June 5 is the logical start line for this text. That is when Ohtani and Skenes first encountered each other throughout a recreation at PNC Park. They confronted off 3 times that night time: Skenes received the primary matchup, Ohtani the second and the third.

Their first conflict performed out like one thing ripped from baseball’s lore, with Skenes recording a Okay on three swinging strikes. Skenes confirmed off his uncommon mixture of velocity and command, beating Ohtani with a 101 mph fastball dotted on the within nook, then with a 100 mph fastball to the furthest up-and-in level inside the strike zone, after which, to combine issues up, with a 101 mph fastball up and away. Observe:

As famous above, Ohtani struck again in his subsequent at-bats in opposition to Skenes. However that wasn’t till whiffing on every of the primary 5 fastballs he noticed. Ohtani did proper the ship from there, working a full depend earlier than ripping a 415-foot house run to heart discipline on one other triple-digit Skenes fastball that caught an excessive amount of of the plate. Once more, observe:

“I wish to name that massive on massive as a result of I clearly beat him a few instances earlier,” Skenes mentioned on the time. “I believe that was the best pitch to throw there, he is only a fairly darn good participant. Stuff like that’s going to occur.”

The ultimate assembly between Ohtani and Skenes that night time introduced the least drama. Ohtani fouled off a slider and took a ball earlier than pulling a single to proper discipline on the same pitch to the one he homered on the earlier at-bat.

Coincidentally, the one was Ohtani’s hardest-hit ball of the night time, clocking in 107.6 mph, or a full two ticks hotter than his house run. 

2. Ohtani well-equipped for Skenes’ velocity

Maybe it will come as no shock given what occurred of their first conferences, however superior statistics help one conclusion: Ohtani can deal with Skenes’ velocity.

Skenes has rapidly established himself because the hardest-throwing starter in baseball. He’ll enter Saturday’s recreation ranked fourth within the majors in common four-seamer velocity at 98.9 mph. The three pitchers forward of him are all closers: Mason Miller, Jhoan Duran, and Ryan Helsley. That is acceptable, in our minds, since an excellent framework for describing Skenes to somebody is “an elite nearer with a starter’s command and stamina.”

Skenes’ particular mixture permits him to hector most opponents. But Ohtani is, fittingly, one of many few who has confirmed he is able to damaging top-end velocity.

Coming into Friday’s sequence opener, Ohtani was 9 for 18 this season in opposition to pitches that had been 98 mph or hotter. His common exit velocity on these pitches, in the meantime, was 99.8 mph. That is not skewed by a few well-struck balls, both: practically 82% of Ohtani’s balls in play on excessive velocity pitches have cleared a 95 mph exit velocity. 

Now, to be truthful, Ohtani has swung and missed at a higher-than-average clip in opposition to excessive velocity pitches — that, too, should not be so stunning given how he began his matchups in opposition to Skenes. Ohtani’s 40% whiff fee on 98-plus-mph pitches is properly above the league-average mark (24.7%).

When Skenes talked about his method versus Ohtani being “massive on massive,” he might have inadvertently spoiled the outcomes of their matchups, too. Primarily based on the underlying information, it appears doubtless that their plate appearances finish in both laborious contact or a Okay. It is all or nothing.

3. When’s the following assembly?

This weekend will signify the final time the Dodgers and Pirates play this season and, due to this fact, the final assured time we get an opportunity to look at Ohtani face Skenes. Whereas it is unlikely, we do really feel obligated to notice that there’s a chance of the Dodgers and the Pirates assembly once more in 2024, with that matchup going down in October.

Of the 2 squads, the Dodgers have the extra apparent pathway. They personal a 2 1/2-game edge within the Nationwide League West and SportsLine provides L.A. a 98.4% likelihood of reaching the playoffs. Even when the Dodgers discover themselves falling behind the San Diego Padres, they need to be capable to maintain onto a wild-card spot.  The Pirates’ trek to October, conversely, is extra treacherous. Coming into play on Saturday, Pittsburgh is 4 1/2 video games again of the ultimate wild-card spot and has misplaced 5 video games in a row. The Pirates had been additionally caught behind three different groups, additional complicating issues.

Probably the most direct path to an Ohtani-Skenes postseason assembly is straightforward to plot. It might entail the Dodgers ending with the worst document of the Nationwide League division winners, thereby requiring them to play a wild-card sequence in opposition to the final group in. The Pirates are a longshot to even safe the third wild-card spot, suggesting that is most likely their ceiling, barring one thing bizarre taking place over the ultimate month-plus.

Once more, it is not a really doubtless state of affairs (and if they do not face off within the playoffs, the primary Pirates-Dodgers sequence of 2025 is about for April 25-27). That makes it all of the extra important to savor tonight’s sequences between Ohtani and Skenes, for these are the sorts of matchups you dream about through the offseason.