A number of weeks in the past, I locked myself in my movie cave and meticulously analyzed each snap of coaches’ movie to judge the six quarterbacks stepping in to interchange the outgoing 2024 first-round picks from the 2024 NFL Draft. Some took a very long time (new Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel), whereas others, because of a smaller pattern measurement, have been a lot shorter, although no much less fascinating (Michigan’s Alex Orji). These detailed notes have been printed this week on 247Sports. 

Our projections for these quarterbacks fluctuate broadly. Beneath, we have distilled the scouting stories into shorter write-ups, rating every of the six quarterbacks by probability of efficiently changing their first-round predecessor, primarily based not solely on the quarterback’s personal bodily expertise but additionally the supporting forged round them. 

Arrange for main success

1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon

Changing: Bo Nix (No. 12 total, Denver Broncos)

Dillon Gabriel, in what seems like his tenth 12 months of faculty, brings in depth expertise and execution of a tempo-based offense to a loaded Oregon group anticipated to make a deep playoff run (Gabriel has 49 begins, practically 15,000 passing yards and 125 landing passes to his identify).

Gabriel had his greatest season final 12 months in Norman, scoring 12 touchdowns on the bottom and making crucial performs to maneuver the chains. Gabriel excels in a tempo and RPO-based offense, delivering the ball on time with a reside arm that may dissect defenses. He reads defenses effectively, finds inexperienced grass for simple completions, and capitalizes on man-to-man matchups for explosive performs. His means to increase performs and navigate the pocket, whether or not along with his arm or legs, is a standout trait. Regardless of sometimes lacking crossers and deep throws, Gabriel is poised to be one of many prime quarterbacks within the nation. 

His adaptation to Will Stein’s offense and comparability to Bo Nix’s efficiency 2023 Heisman Finalist season might be fascinating to look at. Anticipate an enormous season from Gabriel, along with his efficiency in opposition to Ohio State early on probably influencing the 2024’s Heisman dialog.

2. Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Changing: Jayden Daniels (No. 2 total, Washington Commanders)

Garrett Nussmeier lastly takes the helm at LSU after backing up All-American and Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. Recognized for his glorious arm and soccer IQ, he’s poised for a breakout season behind one of many prime offensive traces and a proficient receiving corps. In restricted motion final season, he shone in his begin in opposition to Wisconsin within the ReliaQuest Bowl, throwing for 410 yards and 6 touchdowns.

Nussmeier performs with a gunslinger mentality, confidently threading tight-window throws throughout his physique. He has a fast launch and delivers correct passes when his ft are set, although his accuracy can endure beneath strain. LSU has a good schedule early on, which is able to give Nussmeier time to get tremendous comfy. He might be a first-round draft choose come 2025.  

The wildcards

3. Miller Moss, USC

Changing: Caleb Williams (No. 1 total, Chicago Bears)

Miller Moss gained invaluable expertise final 12 months as a backup to first total choose Caleb Williams, culminating in a stellar efficiency in his sole begin on the Vacation Bowl, the place he threw for 377 yards and 6 touchdowns. His calm and picked up demeanor in that recreation boosted his confidence and earned the belief of his teammates and coaches. 

USC hit the switch portal for a backup in Jayden Maiava, however Moss’ bowl recreation efficiency satisfied Lincoln Riley he did not must seize a starter. We may see a reasonably good season right here in Los Angeles, if Moss’ offensive line holds up. The large receiver room might be fairly good and USC shouldn’t need to play in as many shootouts.

Moss has an excellent arm and accuracy however usually locks onto his major goal with out progressing by his reads, which was evident in his restricted motion and led to turnovers in opposition to Louisville. This season, Moss wants to enhance his means to make use of his eyes to maneuver defenders and undergo progressions to keep away from ball-hawking defenders. His success will depend upon his means to make these changes and make the most of simple completions to backs. 

4. Max Johnson, North Carolina

Changing: Drake Maye (No. 3 total, New England Patriots)

Max Johnson, an skilled southpaw, is about to fill in for Drake Maye at North Carolina. With 20 begins at LSU and Texas A&M, he has thrown for over 5,800 yards, 47 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Johnson delivers correct, well timed passes to all ranges of the sector, excelling in brief to intermediate throws. His excessive soccer IQ and pedigree are evident in his means to learn defenses. He reveals surprisingly nimble measurement at 6-foot-5 and who could make performs along with his ft. 

Johnson throws effectively on the transfer and makes good choices beneath strain, delivering strikes over the center and taking hits when essential. Nonetheless, his common launch time and inconsistent pocket presence can hinder his efficiency — he usually drifts too deep or laterally, which complicates safety for the offensive line.

Total, I’d be stunned if Moss was greater than fairly common. North Carolina is probably going going to wrestle in 2024 and the crystal ball says coach Mack Brown calls it a profession after the season. 

We may see them getting benched

5. Will Rogers, Washinton

Changing: Michael Penix Jr. (No. 8 total, Atlanta Falcons)

Will Rogers struggled final 12 months as Mississippi State’s navigated to a pro-style system. Now at Washington, he faces, effectively, the problem of mastering Jedd Fisch’s pro-style offense and adapting to NFL terminology whereas changing Michael Penix Jr. and far of the 2023 Washington offense. 

Sure, Rogers brings a powerful resume to the Pacific Northwest, together with beginning 40 video games and holding the SEC document for profession completions. His strengths lie in his means to course of defenses rapidly, transfer by his progressions, and reduce turnovers, as evidenced by his low interception fee even in a down 12 months. Nonetheless, his arm power is common, excelling in brief to intermediate throws, and he confirmed a major drop in accuracy final season, finishing solely 60% of his passes in comparison with 70% in earlier years. How does that bode on the highway within the Midwest and at house within the Seattle mist? 

If Fisch can restore his confidence, Rogers may enhance, however Washington’s potential expertise deficit and his personal limitations could result in a disappointing season and probably dropping the beginning job to a youthful, extra athletic quarterback in true freshman Demond Williams if Fisch decides to play for 2025. 

6. Alex Orji, Michigan

Changing: JJ McCarthy (No. 10 total, Minnesota Vikings)

Alex Orji is essentially the most unpredictable quarterback prospect of the six, with spectacular measurement and athletic means hinting at how Sherrone Moore may run Michigan’s offense in 2024. Regardless of restricted taking part in time — 17 snaps final season and solely eight in 2022 with only one cross try — Orji showcased his bodily operating means as a change of tempo in Michigan’s ground-and-pound offense. As a dynamic athlete, he excels with the ball in his palms, however defenses will anticipate this and cargo the field to cease the run. 

Though Michigan’s coaches are assured in his operating abilities, his passing means stays largely untested. Former coach Jim Harbaugh praised Orji’s arm expertise, noting his highschool stats of over 2,000 passing yards, a 51% completion fee, 28 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Michigan is anticipated to make use of heavy formations to emphasise the run, as Orji’s passing capabilities are nonetheless unknown exterior the group. 

He could both proceed in his situational function from final 12 months or be surpassed by a extra conventional passer.