The Houston Astros have had the American League West on lockdown for a bit. Positive, they did not win the division in 2020, however that was solely a 60-game season and for a lot of different apparent causes might be written off as an anomaly. They gained the division in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023. Yep, each full season since 2016.
Final 12 months, nevertheless, went right down to the ultimate day they usually gained the crown through tiebreaker. The Rangers and Astros each ended 90-72 whereas the Mariners had been solely two video games again at 88-74.
Will the Astros’ reign on the high finish this season? They head to Memorial Day weekend 22-28, 4.5 video games out. The are literally nearer to final place than first, because the A’s are 21-31 and the Angels are 20-30. On the high, the Mariners have the worst report among the many six division leaders in baseball, sitting solely three video games over .500 whereas the Rangers are in an enormous funk proper now, having misplaced 10 of their final 12 video games.
Who will win this factor? Our Mike Axisa regarded on the division simply days in the past, so for the gamblers on the market trying on the future’s market, what staff is the perfect play right here? Let’s break it down with much more consideration given to the three groups that might truly win it.
Seattle Mariners, 27-24 (-115)
The beginning rotation has general been among the many finest in baseball and it is in all probability sustainable. George Kirby and Luis Castillo are literally able to higher whereas Logan Gilbert is not actually doing something that ought to lead us to imagine he is about to get crushed with regression. Bryce Miller is sweet and Bryan Woo has been nice in his three begins. The bullpen is absolutely able to working at a excessive stage all 12 months, too.
The offense is regarding, in fact. Recent off the shutout loss Thursday, the Mariners have scored two runs in a recreation eight occasions, one run eight occasions and 0 runs now twice. That is 18 out of 51 or 35% of the time they do not even get to 3 runs. They sit within the backside third of the AL in runs, doubles, common, on-base share, slugging and OPS. Additionally they lead the league in strikeouts and rank poorly in stolen bases. They do hit dwelling runs, however you’d prefer to see offense generated in different methods. One of the simplest ways to keep away from slumps is to have a various offense, or the flexibility to attain in many alternative methods. The Mariners appear to simply await bombs.
There’s hope for a elevate if Julio Rodríguez begins to hit for energy whereas gamers like J.P. Crawford, Ty France and Jorge Polanco have been higher within the current previous with batting common and OBP.
There’s additionally a commerce deadline, so we’ll see how aggressive Jerry Dipoto needs to be. The reply needs to be very, provided that the window with this beginning rotation will not be open endlessly.
Texas Rangers, 24-27 (+375)
The 2023 Texas Rangers led the AL in hits, runs, walks, common, on-base share, slugging share and clearly OPS. They slugged .452 as a staff and clubbed 233 dwelling runs. They’d 10 gamers in double digits in dwelling runs.
The 2024 Rangers will not be a juggernaut on offense. They nonetheless have loads of nice hitters and really feel fairly scary, however the collective manufacturing simply hasn’t been the place one would count on. Corey Seager definitely hasn’t been unhealthy, however he hasn’t been the killer he was final 12 months. Josh Jung was injured after simply 4 video games. Rookie Wyatt Langford wasn’t hitting nicely and is now additionally damage. Evan Carter has largely dissatisfied.
As a staff, the Rangers are slugging beneath. 400.
The rotation wasn’t too unhealthy for a bit, however the accidents have caught as much as them. Cody Bradford was damage after three begins of fantastic work. Nathan Eovaldi was throwing the ball nicely and he is on the injured checklist, becoming a member of Max Scherzer, Tyler Mahle and Jacob deGrom. Jon Grey has been wonderful, however he was simply positioned on the injured checklist.
Principally, it’s kind of of a multitude proper now between accidents and underperformance. And but, the Rangers are solely three video games beneath .500.
We all know the Rangers can get extraordinarily cold and warm. Final August, they gained 12 of 14, then misplaced eight in a row. After profitable three of 4, they misplaced seven of eight earlier than profitable six in a row however then shedding 4 in a row. Then they received scorching once more. It was ridiculous. It is a simple promote within the clubhouse for a veteran, Corridor of Fame supervisor in Bruce Bochy to climate this storm by saying “we have performed this earlier than.” They’ve.
Houston Astros, 22-28 (+195)
After all, the aforementioned 2023 Rangers did not win the division and these Astros have loads of the identical personnel from division-winning ballclubs. They’re used to profitable the division just about yearly, so in addition they have a simple buy-in down within the clubhouse.
Jose Altuve is nice whereas Kyle Tucker is having an MVP season. Yordan Alvarez is healthier than this and certainly Alex Bregman goes to get scorching in some unspecified time in the future, given his observe report. Age 30 is just too early for his regression part. It is also doable Jeremy Peña is having his offensive breakout season. Principally, although the Astros fee nicely in most offensive classes, I believe they’re extra prone to get even higher than the rest.
The bullpen is a bit skinny, however Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader cannot probably be any worse than they had been to start out the season.
Quite a lot of the problems come right down to the rotation. What’s unsuitable with Framber Valdez? What was unsuitable with Cristian Javier in two of his final three begins? Is Justin Verlander understandably simply mediocre now at age 41? Can they get extra from J.P. France and/or Hunter Brown this season? When will José Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. be again and, at any time when they return, how a lot will they assist?
It definitely looks like they’ve the personnel within the rotation to ultimately get issues discovered, particularly if Ronel Blanco is actually having a breakout season.
The Astros did dig themselves a deep gap by beginning the season 12-24. After all, they’ve gone 10-4 since then and are proper inside hanging vary now.
We have gotta give props to the A’s for pulling themselves as much as .500 (17-17) after a 1-7 begin. That was a hell of a run of baseball for this group to go 16-10. Since they hit .500, nevertheless, they’ve gone 4-14. They’ve proven sufficient battle to imagine they’re going to simply high final season’s win complete of fifty, however they’re much extra the unhealthy stretches than the great and will not win this division.
Los Angeles Angels, 20-30 (+4000)
They are not that far out of it, however the Angels are completely not profitable this division. We need not focus on it additional, as the percentages replicate actuality.
The decide: Astros +195
It feels just like the Mariners and Rangers are going to remorse going via a few of their points early within the season whereas the Astros had been making an attempt to bury themselves.
I would not be shocked one bit if the Mariners or Rangers take this division, however I am absolutely on the Astros at plus cash right here.
