You may know the story. Our hero, battered and bruised, on the cusp of defeat to the evil antagonist, can take no extra. With out the energy to struggle on anymore his doom is imminent. Then comes their deus ex machina, the wizened mentor from earlier, prepared to carry the foe off on the previous. Our younger challenger escapes, prepared to finish his noble quest.

You may think about David Moyes as Obi Wan Kenobi in some off Broadway stage manufacturing of Star Wars, cannot you? If not, maybe it is possible for you to to after Sunday. The outgoing West Ham supervisor is aware of there isn’t any struggle left in him, however, if he can simply maintain out towards the would possibly of Manchester Metropolis, he should purchase time for his younger apprentice to finish his quest. In any case these physique blows he has taken at Metropolis’s arms over the 12 months, would possibly the final triumph be for Moyes and his protege Mikel Arteta?

It makes for an ideal story however in the true world, nicely, it feels extra believable as a piece of fiction than truth. West Ham, with nothing to play for however the satisfaction of their outgoing supervisor, have a horrendous report towards Metropolis. There’s a motive why Moyes is leaving the membership he guided to European glory 12 months in the past. His staff has not been significantly good this season, significantly in latest months, when it grew to become obvious that the board’s willingness to maintain maintain of a person that had divided the opinion of the fanbase was swiftly ebbing away.

Since a backs to the wall win at Arsenal on December 28, West Ham have picked up simply 19 factors from 18 video games. The 41 targets they’ve conceded are greater than Burnley, the 36.7 anticipated targets (xG) they’ve given up, additionally greater than Burnley. Backside half underlying metrics for the reason that first half of the season have led to backside half ends in the second.

Nonetheless, Pep Guardiola sees trigger for nerves. His post-match press convention on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium noticed him refer again to the blown title that wasn’t towards Aston Villa on multiple event. “The sport will probably be fully comparable when it comes to emotion and every thing,” mentioned the Metropolis boss. His identification of West Ham’s nice strengths appears pretty much as good a place to begin as any for an examination on how West Ham would possibly present the title to Arsenal.

West Ham’s useless ball masters

“Now it is [Mohamed] Kudus, [Jarrod] Bowen, [Michail] Antonio, [James] Ward-Prowse, [Tomas] Soucek,” mentioned Guardiola. “Set items. Channels.” Park the person expertise for a second and it’s the useless balls specifically that develop into intriguing. In any case, West Ham’s nice European odyssey was powered by them hitting corners and free kicks into the penalty space, the place Moyes males merely out-talled the opposition to go down with ease. Even within the land of the giants that’s the Premier League, West Ham stand tall.

Thus far this season, solely three groups have created extra xG from non-penalty set items than the Hammers 14.2. Free kicks are a specific energy for Moyes’ facet, marshalled as they’re by England’s most pinpoint proper foot since David Beckham, James Ward-Prowse. These with data of the set piece artwork have a tendency to emphasise that there’s extra to the 29 12 months outdated’s success than simply the various hours he places into his craft on the coaching floor. His ball-striking, the way in which during which he naturally crops his toes: these are the innate instruments that allow him hit the ball with ferocity on his instep.

Concede a free kick within the channels and all you possibly can actually do is hope that, in case your facet get a boot on a ball flying with huge whip and tempo, it occurs to deflect to security. This supply towards Aston Villa in March, for example, induced an outright panic that resulted within the ball bundled within the internet solely to be dominated out for one thing that occurred within the rumble across the ball.

Ward-Prowse might not have scored from a free kick this season — although bending that nook in towards Wolves wasn’t too shabby in its place — however nobody is laying extra probabilities on for teammates. Kieran Trippier, Bruno Fernandes, Alfie Doughty and Martin Odeegard are second within the Premier League’s rankings for probabilities created from free kicks with 9. Ward-Prowse has 16. He has 1.62 anticipated assists from free kicks. Solely two different gamers within the prime flight have one. If Manchester Metropolis concede a free kick anyplace within the ultimate third, they are going to be underneath menace.

Most sides, together with Manchester Metropolis once they confronted West Ham in August, decide to defend Ward-Prowse’s deliveries with a line of defense parked on the sting of the penalty space. That may go some approach to limiting the direct menace of the primary ball into the field however the Hammers have the peak to win that and create knockdowns for others.

In true Moyesian style, there isn’t any complexity for complexities sake in how West Ham assault useless balls. They’ll make changes — take the draw with Tottenham earlier this 12 months the place Jarrod Bowen dropped supply after supply simply in entrance of the notoriously shaky Guglielmo Vicario — however for probably the most half they profile as a staff who intention for the prime spot simply inside their six yard field and belief Kurt Zouma and Tomas Soucek to do the remainder.

That may work nicely towards Stefan Ortega, who will enter the Metropolis XI with Ederson sidelined attributable to a fractured eye socket. The German has confirmed himself to be among the best backups within the Premier League this season, the hero of the hour when he blocked Heung-min Son to safe victory on the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. However in a small pattern measurement of crosses confronted this season, Ortega does not profile as a springy, off his line cross-gatherer within the mould of Emiliano Martinez and David Raya. He has dealt nicely with Ben White kinds blockers, however the punches with which he cleared crosses towards Actual Madrid and Crystal Palace weren’t probably the most convincing. Past even that, Metropolis’s quantity two simply hasn’t run into that many sides who would actually look to monster him at set items. When he did face the type of probability that Zouma is so professional at getting his head on, he was fortunate that Luton did not rating.

Ortega, will, nevertheless be protected by one of many Premier League’s greatest set piece defenses. Metropolis have conceded simply two useless ball targets this season and a league greatest 5.9 xG. It helps no finish when you’ve gotten sufficient of the ball that the Ward-Prowses and Fernandes would possibly solely get one or two set items to check out however watch again probably the most harmful probabilities they’ve confronted and Metropolis have an ideal high quality for placing simply sufficient stress on the ball. Add in Ruben Dias’ willingness to hurl himself in entrance of something and you’ve got fairly an efficient useless ball protection.

This would possibly simply be one spot the place West Ham’s energy does not mix nicely with Manchester Metropolis’s defensive profile. That’s not fairly as true elsewhere, nevertheless.

Counter attacking menace

In case your imaginative and prescient for probably the most Moyes period West Ham objective just isn’t Zouma or Soucek rising highest at a set piece, it is nearly definitely Jarrod Bowen flying in behind the opposition protection. One on one with the goalkeeper he strikes house, 5 minutes of Irons defending become a valuable objective within the blink of an eye fixed. No facet within the Premier League betters West Ham’s 9 targets from counter assaults this season whereas solely Alexander Isak has greater than Bowen’s 4 targets from quick breaks.

That hefty return on the breakaway is typical of what this staff is nice at. In Moyes 4 full seasons on the membership he has three campaigns during which his facet rank within the total prime 10 for counterattacking targets and their whole tally of twenty-two is eclipsed solely by Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool.

Each this season, and over Moyes’ 4 years as a complete, there’s a case to be made that West Ham have simply had a little bit of a scorching streak in entrance of objective once they’re flying down the pitch. This season’s 9 targets got here from 6.6 xG, over the 4 years as a complete they’ve constructed 83 breakaways that led to pictures value 16.6 xG. A few of the overperformance could also be streakiness however when there are 4 years of knowledge to contemplate, one wonders if there may be extra at play. In any case, all through that point West Ham have had gamers who’re superb at counterattacking soccer. Whether or not that be the muscularity of Antonio within the channels, the precision of Bowen’s left foot or the standard of service they get from Lucas Paquetta, it is a staff constructed to get scorching on the break.

Will probably be arising towards one that isn’t fairly as efficient at snuffing out breakaways as is perhaps thought. There are clear explanation why Metropolis would possibly face a disproportionate variety of counters; when their construct up play is forcing each participant on the opposition into their very own third then loads of assaults Guardiola’s facet face are going to appear like counters. This season these strikes have been getting by means of with a bit extra regularity although. No staff within the Premier League has conceded extra breakaway targets than Metropolis’s eight. 

They’ve been undone by some fairly spectacular ending every now and then — take Alexander Isak’s bending strike at St. James’ Park earlier this 12 months — however there are vulnerabilities to be probed when Metropolis concede possession, as Son proved on Tuesday evening. Rodri’s extra aggressive positioning within the final two seasons offers his facet actual alternatives to strangle assaults at supply however escape and Metropolis would possibly solely be a mistake away, significantly now that they’re deploying extra up and down the flank full backs in Kyle Walker and Josko Gvardiol.

On this passage of play towards Crystal Palace above a free giveaway by Stones is exacerbated by Gvardiol, so spectacular within the second half of the season, leaping out of the again three in an try and stress Jordan Ayew. The Palace No.9 lays the ball again to Adam Wharton, who has the standard to right away spring Jean-Phillipe Mateta in behind. In Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace, meaning one factor solely, a objective at Selhurst Park. 

A lot the identical occurred earlier within the marketing campaign on the London Stadium. Gvardiol received drawn out of the road, nutmegged by Bowen and Vladimir Coufal was launched in sufficient house that he may maintain away from Jeremy Doku, search for and clip a cross to the again publish and Ward-Prowse.

The probabilities could possibly be there for West Ham. Definitely they’re showing with extra regularity than they have been at the beginning of what is perhaps Metropolis’s fourpeat. In 2020-21 Guardiola’s facet gave up 13 pictures, 1.6 xG and one objective to groups on the counter. Final 12 months these numbers have been 25, 3.4 and three. Now there are fewer openings however good high quality ones with opponents turning 19 pictures and three.6 xG into eight breakaway targets. 

There you’ve gotten it, the exhaust port within the Loss of life Star, one primed to be punctured by a small raiding occasion of rebels. One final act by an outdated grasp of the Premier League is perhaps all it takes to offer this season a exceptional ending.