Florida State exploring a possible ACC exit was a curious transfer. In spite of everything, ought to the varsity even discover a technique to skirt across the convention’s grant of rights settlement, there’s not a transparent path to wrangle itself into the next payday within the SEC or Massive Ten.
Insiders don’t imagine including Florida State to a type of conferences makes a lot sense, financially, regardless of this system’s sturdy model. The Seminoles, by themselves, usually are not value messing with the $60 million being handed out in income to SEC colleges nor the $75 million getting paid out to Massive Ten establishments.
That dialogue has not solely modified, however Clemson becoming a member of its convention rival in submitting a lawsuit in opposition to the ACC this week — difficult the grant of rights — has given new life to a different potential spherical of realignment.
Florida State and Clemson are a dynamic duo that might probably set off one other shake-up throughout the faculty sports activities panorama. If the ‘Noles and Tigers are deemed unworthy of Massive Ten or SEC membership, even perhaps the Massive 12 reveals curiosity.
In December, I wrote that Florida State extracting itself from the ACC felt like a 5-10 12 months course of. Now, you may maybe transfer that timeline up a bit since there are two saber-rattling colleges difficult the league. It appears solely a matter of time earlier than the three sides come to a negotiated decision within the nine-figure vary.
Florida State and Clemson really feel they’ll, at worst, purchase their method out of the present ESPN media rights deal that runs via 2036. The penalty to depart the convention would in all probability be rather less than the $572 million determine Florida State directors calculated throughout a December 2023 assembly.
It is clear Florida State and Clemson do not wish to be within the ACC. The three events will co-exist, however they will not prefer it. Now, consideration turns as to if the convention’s financials can stand up to the warmth in the long run because the league has countersued each colleges.
Each colleges should formally go away the ACC earlier than talks can start with one other convention. If not, get accustomed to the phrase “tortuous interference,” which is a flowery authorized time period for tampering. You possibly can guess ACC commissioner Jim Phillips has warned his Energy 4 friends to put off unlawful pursuits.
How far does this go with out a clear route for the insurgents? Sources informed CBS Sports activities there may be method an excessive amount of credit score being given to boosters, presidents and regents/trustees who’re fueling this motion. The idea, nonetheless, is that they know what they’re doing.
Maybe they do not, although. It is one factor to get out of the ACC; it is one other to discover a new house in a well timed method that makes monetary sense in the long run.
Regardless, we’re witnessing a sluggish separation of the haves and have nots. ESPN and Fox participated by offering the impetus behind Texas and Oklahoma shifting to the SEC, whereas USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon quickly adopted swimsuit set to develop into Massive Ten members in 2024.
The up to date Faculty Soccer Playoff income distribution mannequin was one other indicator of the SEC and Massive Ten’s reign because the ruling class in school soccer. Starting with the new CFP media rights contract in 2026, Massive Ten colleges shall be making a complete of near $100 million every, whereas the SEC shall be someplace round $80 million.
Probably the most important separator, nonetheless, shall be inevitable settling of ongoing antitrust lawsuits in opposition to the NCAA and Energy 5 conferences.
Florida State and Clemson have made their intentions recognized, however who’s subsequent?
“If in case you have 5 – 6 different colleges file the same lawsuit, it is type of like a pack of hyenas going after a lion,” an ACC supply informed CBS Sports activities.
What’s subsequent in potential realignment?
Massive-picture lookahead: Not a lot has modified because the U.S. Supreme Court docket deregulated school soccer tv in 1984. The massive winners from that call had been the Massive Ten, SEC and Notre Dame, all of whom had the juice to barter their very own tv offers. These three titans shortly capitalized and have probably the most profitable TV offers to today. FSU and Clemson need into that unique membership. If the price is destabilizing the ACC, effectively, we already dwell in a me-first society that’s mirrored by the me-first nature of school athletics.
It is develop into clear that rights holders worth matchups and rivalries. Attempt to identify a conventional soccer rivalry sport that the SEC and Massive Ten do not have at this level. Florida State-Clemson is among the few solutions. Miami-Florida State is perhaps one other. Aside from these two, few aren’t residing underneath their umbrellas.
That is why Florida State and Clemson collectively means a lot. Not counting playoff or bowl video games, rivalries accounted for 10 of the 11 highest-rated matchups final season. The one one not owned by the SEC or Massive Ten — because the leagues will take care of realignment in July 2024 — was Colorado-Colorado State. That, nonetheless, was pumped up by the Deion Sanders phenomenon.
If FSU and Clemson be part of the Massive Ten or SEC collectively, would that be sufficient to maneuver the dial? Sources informed CBS Sports activities that it is uncertain — at the very least within the close to time period.
What we’re left with is a rising group of ACC colleges that additionally need out. Because the ACC has continually reminded, these colleges signed a 20-year contract in good religion with ESPN in 2016. The nearer we get to expiration in 2036, the nearer we get to the following spherical of realignment.
FSU and Clemson are enticing manufacturers. They’re simply not enticing manufacturers proper now. The SEC has once more determined to play eight convention video games in 2025. If it ever strikes to 9, as an instance in 2026, the league will ask ESPN to be compensated for the additional sport earlier than contemplating the ‘Noles and Tigers as growth candidates.
In February 2025, ESPN can choose up an possibility on the ACC contract from 2027-36. Barring a authorized maneuver that advantages FSU and Clemson within the subsequent 11 months, it is exhausting to examine the community not making that transfer. Conserving the ACC collectively on the present worth (simply north of $40 million per crew earlier than CFP income) offers value certainty, which is what the cable giants need.
The AAU concern: FSU and Clemson usually are not AAU colleges, which can or will not be a dealbreaker for the Massive Ten. The league crowed about including Nebraska from that elite educational membership in 2011. A month later, Nebraska grew to become the primary faculty within the AAU’s century-plus historical past to be kicked out.
Who might be subsequent? If the ‘Noles and Tigers extricate themselves, the aforementioned “hyenas” will possible observe. With compelling authorized blueprints difficult the grant of rights rising, different ACC colleges are assured to be watching these proceedings intently.
North Carolina could be excessive on any record — even perhaps forward of Florida State and Clemson. The UNC model is among the many most recognizable in sports activities. It was extremely desired when Jim Delany was Massive Ten commissioner, seen as probably the most highly effective determine in school sports activities. It might be desired in each the SEC and Massive Ten right now.
Miami matches within the Massive Ten as an AAU faculty, however most of its soccer historical past is approaching historic standing. May the Hurricanes’ inconsistency on the sphere value them a spot on the big-boy desk? The SEC is already within the Sunshine State with Florida. Why wouldn’t it need Florida State? Once more, there is no assure these sad within the ACC would land within the Massive Ten or SEC.
Battle of the titans: The continuing media rights rivalry between ESPN and Fox have to be thought of amid realignment discuss. The stakes have by no means been larger for the networks tied primarily to the Massive Ten (Fox — video games additionally airing on CBS and NBC) and fully to the SEC (ESPN) on the high of the meals chain. Additional realignment threatens to upset the steadiness in what’s principally develop into an AFC vs. NFC dynamic. Sure, they’re that highly effective. ESPN has your entire state of South Carolina (Clemson, South Carolina) and Florida (Florida, Miami, FSU) on its air for soccer. Why wouldn’t it wish to cede a part of these viewing areas to Fox in realignment?
Networks do not wish to reward colleges for bailing out of their convention agreements, both. Texas, Oklahoma, USC and UCLA initially introduced their intentions to depart on the finish of their convention offers, whereas FSU and Clemson are suing greater than a decade earlier than their expiration dates. No community needs to be perceived as breaking apart the ACC.
CFP deal ready for realignment: FBS commissioners noticed match to insert language within the new CFP deal that permits for a contract “look-in” in 2028 ought to there be any “materials” realignment. “Materials” is at present undefined, however by any definition, FSU and Clemson altering conferences would trigger the contract to be reopened and income distribution to be recalibrated.
We’d as effectively confer with this “materials” language because the Florida State Clause. Commissioners thought sufficient to reopen the deal at any time if main realignment occurred earlier than 2028, a 12 months through which there’s already the look-in written into the contract. The Florida State Clause at the very least reveals the commissioners’ consciousness that radical realignment may come sooner.
ACC composition: The principle motive the ACC expanded final 12 months was in preparation for any such second. The convention composition clause within the league’s ESPN contract states the community can renegotiate if membership dips beneath 15 colleges. That is why SMU, Stanford and California had been invited to hitch in 2024.
The league will broaden to 17 colleges with these additions this season. Notre Dame is a member in all sports activities however soccer and hockey. Consider these three as a firewall in opposition to any defections. If the quantity dips beneath 15, ESPN may assert the remaining members of the ACC aren’t definitely worth the unique price ticket. That would sign the convention’s demise.
Massive 12 possibility: Whereas the aim for FSU and Clemson is to hitch the Massive Ten or SEC, the Massive 12 may function a fallback plan. But when the ‘Noles and Tigers aren’t value that $60 million per 12 months quantity for the SEC, which appears to be the minimal cowl cost to make a transfer, why would they take much less cash simply to depart the ACC?
A Massive 12 union appears potential if rightholders could be prepared to extend the worth of the league’s media rights settlement; its groups are at present set to earn $32 million per 12 months, lowest among the many Energy 4. That is a income hole of $28 million with the SEC and $43 million with the Massive Ten.
Scheduling settlement with Massive Ten, SEC: One business supply informed CBS Sports activities a scheduling settlement between the Massive Ten and SEC might be a longshot possibility on the desk for Florida State and Clemson. However that might be stepping away from the assured cash — irrespective of how small the determine — within the ACC to develop into de facto independents.
Notre Dame has its scheduling settlement with the ACC as a result of it wanted entry to bowls when the CFP debuted in 2014. The Combating Irish additionally make someplace between $60 million to $75 million in its mixed NBC and ACC offers. Pac-12 castoffs Oregon State and Washington State are attempting this on a smaller scale with the Mountain West.
FSU and Clemson are trying to find extra than simply relevancy. They wish to make a transfer that gives monetary safety for many years.
Non-public fairness angle: Florida State has been public about its relationship with personal fairness companies that might finance a transfer out of the ACC. The issue is that personal fairness companies desire a return on funding (ROI) usually within the space of 10% to 12%. It is one factor to purchase out of the ACC, which is a pure expense, however It is one other to make sufficient cash in a brand new convention to repay the personal fairness companion. These companies might sooner or later personal the FBS. For now, it is exhausting to examine SEC commissioner Greg Sankey taking orders from anybody.
Looming authorized menace: Additional realignment must be accompanied by an enormous warning signal for the Massive Ten and SEC, which should steadiness their large energy after CFP income distribution was finalized. Collectively, they’re getting 58% of the CFP income starting in 2026, however additionally they management a a lot larger share of TV rankings, attendance and fan curiosity.
If the Massive Ten and SEC are perceived to have any affect on FSU and Clemson leaving the ACC for his or her leagues, antitrust implications popping out of Washington, D.C. might quickly observe.
“At what dimension are you too large that Division of Justice seems at you cross eyed [meaning] you management an excessive amount of market dimension?” one business supply informed CBS Sports activities.
