The San Diego Padres at the moment are lower than three weeks away from starting Main League Baseball’s common season with a two-game set towards the Los Angeles Dodgers in Seoul, South Korea. The Padres adopted up a disappointing season with a transformative winter; gone are supervisor Bob Melvin and stars Juan Soto, Josh Hader, and Trent Grisham. There have been no huge exterior additions to take their locations, both. Certainly, the Padres are, in impact, taking a step away from their current trajectory.
That features within the outfield, the place Fernando Tatis Jr. is the one positive factor. In any other case, the Padres are within the midst of a two-position battle with greater than a handful of entrants. As new supervisor Mike Shildt advised reporters (together with Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune): “The outfield competitors is actual. I imply, the place do you begin?”
We all know our reply. With due respect to the others vying for a spot — José Azocar, Jurickson Profar, Cal Mitchell … take a breath … Bryce Johnson, Óscar Mercado, Tim Locastro, and Jakob Marsee — essentially the most intriguing potential a part of San Diego’s outfield equation is Jackson Merrill, a 20-year-old transformed shortstop with 46 video games value of expertise at or above the Double-A stage.
Simply what makes Merrill so attention-grabbing? And why does it appear extra seemingly than not that he’ll play a job in San Diego’s Opening Day outfield? Let’s spotlight three elements.
1. Merrill is a professional prospect
Merrill has been on our radar since spring 2021, and he entered that summer season’s draft with as a lot helium as anybody else within the class. We ranked him fiftieth that July, noting that he was a polarizing prospect based mostly on his background and projections:
Merrill is a risk-reward play for the ultimate spot on this checklist. He is moved up boards shortly during the last month, although estimates on the place he’ll go within the draft are in every single place. His boosters see him as an above-average hitter, full with good pop from the left facet, whereas his detractors want to see him go to Kentucky and show that he is not the product of going through Maryland excessive schoolers. Nonetheless Merrill’s profession performs out, he is more likely to be some of the second-guessed alternatives on this class.
The Padres proved to be on the “booster” facet of the spectrum, choosing Merrill twenty seventh total. He is since developed into one of many sport’s greatest prospects. To wit, CBS Sports activities just lately ranked Merrill because the twelfth greatest prospect within the minors. Right here is our report, which we are going to notice was initially penned final winter:
The Padres made three of the primary 75 picks within the 2021 draft. Two of their alternatives (James Wooden and Robert Gasser) have since been traded as a part of offers for Juan Soto and Josh Hader. Merrill, the best drafted of the three, stays within the group. He ought to quickly grow to be a part of the big-league lineup. Merrill related on greater than 80% of his swings final season, leading to a cumulative .277/.326/.444 slash line throughout Excessive- and Double-A. His potential to place the bat on the ball is his high promoting level. He does have some energy, but it surely’s nearly completely to his pull facet, and it is exhausting to see him displacing Xander Bogaerts because the Padres’ on a regular basis shortstop. San Diego began enjoying Merrill at different positions down the stretch, together with at first and second base and out in left discipline. If he stays with the Padres into subsequent season — and, as Wooden and Gasser illustrate, you possibly can by no means say for positive — he may start his professional profession in additional of a utility-starter position.
Since then, quite a bit has modified concerning the Padres’ circumstances. Bogaerts is now the on a regular basis second baseman out of deference to Ha Seong Kim, and Merrill would possibly start his profession as an outfielder. The general gist stays true: Merrill is a talented contact hitter with pull-side energy and the athleticism to be glove at varied positions.
You do not have to take our phrase for any of this, both. Merrill has already proven sufficient this spring to persuade Tatis to publicly endorse him making the Opening Day roster as a part of a current ESPN broadcast. Tatis has since supplied much more reward of Merrill, proving within the course of to be a talented hype man.
“He simply can play ball,” Tatis advised reporters. “He can play ball — like actual baseball, baseball that ought to be performed each single day. The man can play that sport. I see him hit, see him enjoying protection, see him working the bases, and the man is gonna assist in each single space.”
2. Lack of nice alternate options
The previous saying about beginning quarterbacks is that in case you have two of them then you definitely even have none. We cannot get that pithy with the Padres’ outfield state of affairs, however take a look at the names above. They’ll safely be categorized as both journeyman sorts (Profar, Mercado, Locastro, Mitchell) or respectable, not nice prospects (Azocar, Marsee, Johnson). The center of it’s that the Padres haven’t got numerous nice choices on paper.
Maybe it is no surprise then why, in response to Dennis Lin of The Athletic, the Padres stay open to including outfielders — as they did earlier this week, after they signed the aforementioned Locastro to a minor-league deal.
That considering may even entail a reunion with Tommy Pham, a member of the 2020-21 Padres. We ranked Pham because the thirty fourth greatest free agent coming into the winter on the idea of his above-average offensive manufacturing and glowing ball-tracking information. If the Padres had been to signal Pham, that will nonetheless depart middle discipline obtainable to Merrill. And if they do not, however they proceed to pursue exterior choices, the place would possibly that lead Here’s a full checklist of the opposite unsigned outfielders who made our high 50 rankings:
- Michael A. Taylor, No. 31
It would not be fully correct to explain Taylor and Pham as polar opposites, however you’ll be extra appropriate than not. Taylor is an impressive defensive middle fielder coming off the very best two-year stretch of his profession as a hitter. Sadly, two issues might be true without delay: Taylor hit about in addition to he is ever hit as a big-league participant, and the product of that comparatively good hitting span was a sub-.300 on-base share.
The Padres had been linked to Taylor earlier this 12 months. It is unclear which outfielder is extra more likely to be part of San Diego’s roster. Both is a fantastic to good possibility in their very own methods. If we needed to guess, although, we suspect the Padres could be available in the market so as to add solely one of many two, leaving a pathway for Merrill to safe a significant position. Why? Let’s segue.
3. Payroll concerns
Remember that one of many causes the Padres traded Soto and allowed Hader and most of their rotation to depart in free company was the need to cut back bills. The Padres reportedly took out a mortgage late final 12 months to cowl payroll. Late proprietor Peter Seidler, who died over the offseason, could have been keen to run a deficit to win a hoop, however MLB has guidelines about debt compliance that each crew should oblige by.
Because it stands, the Padres are projected to have their lowest full-season Opening Day payroll for the reason that 2019 marketing campaign — someplace round $160 million, in response to Baseball Prospectus’ Cot’s Contracts. Their luxurious tax quantity is considerably larger, nevertheless, checking in at $222 million. That leaves the Padres with lower than $15 million wiggle room between their present state of affairs and the tax line. On condition that they gutted chunks of their roster to drop bills, it is most likely honest to imagine the entrance workplace will do what they’ll to remain beneath the tax line this 12 months and reset their penalty.
Including yet another veteran outfielder would reduce into that quantity. Making an attempt so as to add two would complicate sticking by that mission whereas making additional in-season additions.
In different phrases, the Padres have loads of motivation to offer Merrill a chance to make considered one of their vacant outfield spots his personal.
