The 2026 FIFA World Cup is formally six months away, and the match is a shared highlight between three Concacaf hosts. The US, Canada, and Mexico are all one step nearer to studying who their World Cup group opponents can be of their respective teams. The World Cup draw will happen on Friday with the Stars and Stripes in Group D, Canada in Group B, and Mexico in Group A. 

With the largest world match quickly approaching, all eyes are on the host nations and who they’re going to face. The way in which the draw works is that the groups are divided into pots. You’ll be able to take a look at the complete pot-by-pot breakdown right here. 

We have already sorted who can be the greatest and worst case situation for the USMNT, however what about El Tri? Who may they play, and is there really a greatest situation given their latest kind? Let’s get into it:

Draw restrictions

No group could have multiple staff from the identical federation in it, besides UEFA, which is required to have two teams of two UEFA groups in it, because of the truth that 16 groups can be taking part within the match. Then there’s the problem of the intercontinental playoffs, which won’t be held till after the draw. For the playoff match groups, the confederation restrictions can be utilized to all groups concerned within the playoff, which might maintain the host nations from drawing a staff concerned within the FIFA playoff match because of Jamaica and Suriname being concerned as Concacaf groups.

Mexico’s worst-case draw 

Mexico’s fall from Concacaf grace fizzled as quick as a summer season fling, which is the final time they have been in any respectable kind. Regardless of huge positive aspects in early 2025, together with a Nations League title win, they hoisted the 2025 Gold Cup in July and have did not file any wins since. 

They have six months to type themselves out, however it’s robust to have a look at present kind and the World Cup pots and never assume almost any situation could possibly be a worst-case state of affairs. In an effort to not hit each single panic button in sight, listed here are two draw situations that could possibly be disastrous for Mexico.

Situation A:

• Mexico
• Norway (UEFA)
• Colombia (CONMEBOL)
• Italy (UEFA playoff winner)

With the newly expanded discipline of 48 groups, it could possibly be doable that Group A will get two UEFA groups, and that may be a catastrophe for Mexico if it is Norway and Italy, and even Sweden or Poland. 

It has been nice seeing the rising profile of Caesar Montes on Mexico’s backline, however Erling Haaland would tower over him and anybody else again there. The hope is that the beginning centerbacks come out unscathed with no double yellows (and even straight purple playing cards), in order that it does not power the employees into any early changes.

Colombia not too long ago wrecked Mexico 4-0 in October, and if Italy lastly punches their ticket again into the World Cup after lacking out on the earlier two editions, they’re going to be again with a vengeance. That is at all times a harmful sort of opponent to face while you’re in questionable kind.

Situation B: 

• Mexico
• Scotland (UEFA)
• Morocco (CAF) 
• Sweden (UEFA playoff winner)

As a result of why not be the host that will get not one however two European opponents? Feels prefer it’ll be at the least one of many hosts that will get that honor and would not be shocked if it is Mexico. 

Scotland are driving excessive on the momentum of incomes a spot within the World Cup, and so they could possibly be a difficult facet to deal with. Similar with Sweden, and Mexico are not any strangers to mediocre performances towards them as we noticed throughout 2018 in Russia. Morocco can even have strain on them, as 2022 semifinalists, and favorites as present AFCON hosts. 

Mexico’s best-case draw

If the group stage is about setting your self up for fulfillment within the knockout rounds, then Mexico have work to do. They did not exit the group stage for the primary time in a long time throughout Qatar 2022, and now they’re going to have some strain as hosts to return to the knockout rounds. 

A “quinto partido” (fifth recreation) has been a long-term purpose, however now there’s a spherical of 32 forward of the spherical of 16, and the house facet ought to try for extra. In the event that they get a positive group, then why not hope for one of the best? 

• Mexico
• Ivory Coast (CAF)
• Iran (AFC)
• New Zealand (OFC)

If we’re merely going by rankings amongst different groups throughout the pots, this could possibly be one of many higher situations. If it comes right down to higher-ranked “center” groups to ultimately land one of many lowest-ranked groups in New Zealand, then perhaps it provides much more strain on the hosts. If they do not come out as winners of a gaggle like this, it could be thought of even worse than Qatar 2022.