In late July, I had the possibility to interview Indiana huge receiver Elijah Surratt throughout Large Ten Media Days on the Cowl 3 Podcast. I requested him a query that was gnawing at my very own mind, and till that time, I hadn’t heard anyone else publicly take into account.
As Surratt sat subsequent to me, I requested him if he questioned why, whereas all people else was on the lookout for “the subsequent Indiana,” no person appeared keen to just accept the concept Indiana was “the subsequent Indiana.” Why was all people so certain the Hoosiers have been a one-year surprise?
I might hope way more individuals are contemplating the likelihood after Saturday evening.
Surratt scored two touchdowns because the Hoosiers whooped No. 9 Illinois 63-10, and within the course of, let the school soccer world know they do not plan to go anyplace. Certain, you’ll be able to mock their nonconference scheduling habits, and you may query how they’re going to deal with a schedule that is tougher this season than final yr’s (on paper, anyway), however you’ll be able to’t query Saturday’s outcome. Although I am certain they’re going to attempt anyway.
It jogs my memory of what we noticed final season.
Indiana began the 2024 season 6-0 with convention wins over UCLA, Maryland and Northwestern, however no person was taking them significantly but. They have been falling sufferer to the protection mechanism the School Soccer Hivemind has any time a workforce no person anticipated to be good begins doing issues that recommend they seem to be a good soccer workforce.
“Oh, you beat that workforce by 4 touchdowns? Effectively that is solely as a result of they suck. It does not imply something.”
Then Nebraska got here to city in mid-October. The Huskers have been 5-1 themselves, and whereas they weren’t ranked, they have been seen as Indiana’s first actual take a look at. Indiana spanked them 56-7, however whereas they moved as much as No. 13 within the polls the subsequent day, they nonetheless weren’t taken significantly. They’d crushed Nebraska by 49 as a result of Nebraska sucked, not as a result of Indiana was good.
Indiana would begin out 10-0, beating Michigan to get there, however solely as a result of Michigan sucked too. When the Hoosiers misplaced to Ohio State, it was proof they weren’t good. Once they misplaced once more within the School Soccer Playoff to Notre Dame, it was one other reflection of how Indiana wasn’t really good; they have been simply beating unhealthy groups.
By no means thoughts that they’d solely misplaced to the 2 groups who reached the nationwide title recreation.
Odds are, many of the response to Indiana’s 53-point win over Illinois will observe the identical script. It seems Illinois sucks now, too.
I am not shopping for it. I am going to settle for an argument that Illinois was overrated, being within the high 10, but it surely’s an Illinois workforce that had gained 13 of its final 16 video games, which isn’t usually one thing groups that suck do. And Indiana beat ’em by 53 freaking factors.
The Hoosiers have a quarterback in Fernando Mendoza who has climbed the percentages boards to turn out to be one of many Heisman favorites and has been a favourite of NFL scouts for months now. They’ve depth on the ability positions and are excellent alongside the traces of scrimmage. They’re gifted and aggressive. In different phrases, they play like a playoff workforce.
With what we noticed Saturday evening, there is not any purpose to imagine they can not be once more — even with a tougher 2025 schedule that also contains street journeys to Oregon and Penn State.
Texas Tech cruises into CFP image
Not that I might ever advocate considering you already know what is going on to occur within the Large 12, however the Texas Tech Crimson Raiders grew to become heavy-ish favorites to win the league after happening the street to beat Utah 34-10. Now, it needs to be identified the ultimate rating was deceptive. You see, the Crimson Raiders led solely 13-10 after Utah’s Wayshawn Parker scored a landing with 10:22 left to play.
Then Tech poured it on. The Crimson Raiders scored three touchdowns within the closing 8:29 minutes of motion to make what had been an in depth, tense battle for 51 minutes appear like a blowout ultimately.
Regardless, the victory provides Tech the road cred to be thought of the perfect workforce in a league the place groups are sometimes indistinguishable from each other. However this Tech workforce seems to be somewhat totally different. Utah has probably the greatest offensive traces within the nation, however Tech’s defensive position, stuffed with transfers, greater than held its personal on this contest. It is the type of line that had usually been reserved for Oklahoma and Texas after they have been nonetheless within the league, and no person else.
The opposite factor Tech might have is a QB controversy. Behren Morton left the sport after taking an enormous hit and was changed by redshirt freshman Will Hammond, who regarded regarded incredible. He was the one main these three landing drives on the finish, as he completed 13 for 16 for 169 yards with two touchdowns whereas additionally speeding for 61 yards on eight carries. So not solely does this workforce have a stout defensive position, but it surely has QB depth.
It additionally might not have one other recreation towards a ranked workforce remaining on its schedule.
The Large 12 has an ACC drawback
Loosen up, I do not imply on the sphere. With UCF beating North Carolina 34-9 and TCU beating SMU 35-24, the Large 12 improved to 6-1 towards the ACC this season. That is a document that might matter an entire hell of rather a lot come choice time when evaluating at-large candidates.
Or it might not matter in any respect.
The issue for the Large 12 is that whereas the ACC is barely 1-6 towards the Large 12, and it is solely 5-12 towards Energy 4 competitors total, none of these losses have come from Miami or Florida State. No, these two are liable for three of the 5 wins towards Energy 4 groups (Alabama, Florida and Notre Dame), and people three wins are higher than any of the Large 12’s Energy 4 nonconference wins.
So for those who’re a fan of a Large 12 workforce competing for a playoff spot, you have got three groups to root for the remainder of the season: your workforce and whoever the hell is enjoying Florida State and Miami. As a result of if it comes right down to the committee selecting between a 10-2 Florida State workforce that misplaced to Miami twice (within the common season and ACC Championship) however beat Alabama, and a 10-2 TCU that misplaced the Large 12 Championship to Texas Tech, and claims Iowa State or Arizona State as its greatest win, I feel everyone knows what path the committee will take.
Oklahoma has the perfect set of wins within the nation
Oklahoma beat Auburn 24-17 in a recreation that wasn’t precisely fairly, however was the type of ugly wins a workforce wants to select up over the course of a 12-game season if it desires to win its convention or attain the playoff. The Sooners’ protection was phenomenal, ending with 10 sacks and 14 tackles for loss.
Whereas I do not understand how Auburn’s season will go from right here (in fact, I discovered this loss encouraging for the Tigers, as they confirmed me they’ll dangle with anyone left on their schedule), Oklahoma selecting up this win a few weeks after beating Michigan provides the Sooners what I take into account to be the perfect duo of resume wins within the nation.
Auburn will most likely fall out of the AP Prime 25 following this loss, and Michigan will solely transfer as much as roughly No. 19 or so, however from an influence score standpoint, these groups are a lot stronger than their opinion ballot placement suggests. Coming into the weekend, I had Michigan and Auburn at 15 and 19, respectively, in my private energy scores, whereas ESPN’s FPI had them at 10 and 20.
The Sooners have plenty of powerful video games remaining, however they’re going to probably be favored in all however two of them. Whenever you decide up wins like these, it provides you a bit extra leeway must you undergo a loss or two later. Truthfully, I can see Oklahoma sticking within the dialogue at 9-3 proper now. Do not confuse me saying that with me being comfortable in regards to the thought, however the reality of the matter is the committee may simply view a 9-3 Oklahoma as a extra deserving selection than a 10-2 workforce from the ACC, Large Ten or Large 12.
The American is coming for the G6 spot
It might have already got it. Memphis beat Arkansas 32-31 this week, and Tulsa might have ended Mike Gundy’s Oklahoma State profession Friday evening. Even with Tulane’s 45-10 blowout loss to Ole Miss, it was nonetheless an incredible weekend for the league.
The American has now picked up wins towards Arkansas, Duke, Florida, Kansas State, Northwestern, and Oklahoma State. None of them are probably playoff groups, however that is nonetheless six wins towards Energy 4 opponents.
The Mountain West has 4: Cal, Stanford and UCLA twice. And I have never even talked about the Individuals’ ace within the gap: South Florida beat Boise State.
Proper now, it feels as if the Mountain West has two legit contenders to win the league in Boise and UNLV, however the American might have 5. Maybe that’ll show to be its downfall, as these groups may cannibalize one another, however as issues stand now, I will be very shocked if this yr’s G6 champion would not name the American dwelling.
Week 5 vibe shifters
A look forward to the 5 video games on subsequent week’s slate almost definitely to affect the playoff race
Oregon at Penn State
Alabama at Georgia
LSU at Ole Miss
Auburn at Texas A&M
Ohio State at Washington
This week’s CFP Projection
1. Ohio State
2. Miami
3. Georgia
4. Texas Tech
5. Oregon
6. Penn State
7. Oklahoma
8. Alabama
9. Florida State
10. LSU
11. Indiana
12. Memphis
