In 2022-23, the Utah Jazz had been in a candy spot. They’d entered rebuild mode the earlier summer season, buying and selling Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert (and, famously, Royce O’Neale) for a mix of draft picks, choose swaps, prospects and rotation gamers. Their 10-3 begin wasn’t sustainable, but it surely rapidly grew to become clear that Lauri Markkanen, the 7-foot sharpshooter they acquired within the Mitchell deal, was rather more than a rotation participant: He averaged 25.6 factors on 64% true taking pictures, incomes an All-Star look and the Most Improved Participant award. Utah fell out of the playoff race and completed 37-45, however solely after dumping a number of key contributors on the commerce deadline and rolling out some ridiculous lineups down the stretch.
The Jazz’s future appeared vibrant as a result of the chances appeared countless. They may hit the gasoline by buying and selling for a star, construct patiently via the draft, or do one thing in between. A few years later, although, it is truthful to surprise how a lot endurance they’ve left. They’re coming off a 17-65 season through which Markkanen, now 28 years outdated, averaged 19 factors on 57.1% true taking pictures whereas being paid 30% of the wage cap. They’ve but to come back to phrases on a rookie extension with Walker Kessler, who has been in commerce rumors for nearly his total profession. No person they drafted in 2023 and 2024 (Taylor Hendricks, Keyonte George, Brice Sensabaugh, Cody Williams, Isaiah Collier, Kyle Filipowski) has established himself as a part of the core. They’ve a brand new staff president, Austin Ainge, and it is unclear whether or not No. 5 choose Ace Bailey will make him look sensible or boneheaded. To borrow a metaphor from Sam Hinkie, they’ve planted plenty of seeds, however the orchard is much from full bloom.
The State of Play
Final 12 months: In 12 months 3 of its rebuild, Utah did not wait to pile up losses: It was 10-36 on the finish of January, after being 26-26 at that time in 12 months 1 and 24-25 in 12 months 2. Compared to the late-season Jazz, although, the early-season Jazz had been truly superior. From the start of March onward, the staff gained 2 of its 23 video games, with a league-worst web ranking of -14.7. In March, Utah was fined $100,000 for violating the Participant Participation Coverage, however that coverage would not stop groups from benching their finest gamers within the second halves of video games, so the Jazz did simply that. They completed with the worst report within the league, which assured that their draft choose would land no decrease than fifth.
The offseason: They fell as little as they might go within the lottery and chosen Bailey, a 6-foot-7 bucket-getter who had declined to work out with them (and sure different groups). Additionally they traded up from No. 21 to No. 18 to pick Walter Clayton Jr., a 22-year-old level guard who had elevated his inventory by main Florida to the NCAA title. They surprisingly gave up a second-round choose to commerce Collin Sexton for Jusuf Nurkic, however they added three second-round picks by buying and selling John Collins for Kevin Love and Kyle Anderson and absorbing Georges Niang’s contract.
Vegas over/beneath: 18.5 wins, per BetMGM
The Dialog
Jazz believer: I admit I hoped the Jazz would get Cooper Flagg, however the lottery is the lottery. The second that Austin Ainge mentioned that their “dream situation” going into the draft was touchdown each Ace Bailey and Walter Clayton Jr., I formally moved on (and obtained extraordinarily conversant in Bailey’s highlights). Months later, it is nonetheless loopy to me that Bailey was even accessible. He has extra upside than the three guys drafted immediately forward of him, and star wings stay essentially the most priceless archetype within the league. There is no such thing as a doubt in my thoughts that Will Hardy and the participant growth employees will get essentially the most out of him. To me, the Jazz are the 2021-22 Thunder: They want a while, however not as a lot time as individuals suppose.
Jazz skeptic: Except Cody Williams is about to show into Jalen Williams, you are out of your thoughts. The Jazz have not drafted half in addition to the Thunder — a complete anomaly within the historical past of NBA team-building, by the best way — and Lauri Markkanen will not be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Regardless of all of the dropping, I favored watching OKC in the beginning of the Mark Daigneault period, and I truly favored watching Utah in the beginning of the Hardy period, too. I am unable to say the identical about final 12 months’s staff, although. So many horrible turnovers. Such horrible protection. Unhealthy, dangerous, dangerous.
Jazz believer: Did you even watch final 12 months’s Jazz? Successful clearly wasn’t the precedence, however they had been nicely coached and performed exhausting, similar to the Thunder did after they had been a lottery staff. Enjoyable truth: The lineup that Utah used essentially the most (Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Markkanen, John Collins and Walker Kessler) had a plus-7.4 web ranking. The issue is that the lineup solely performed a complete of 196 minutes over 15 video games. Anyway, sufficient about final season. Cody Williams might not be the All-NBA participant that’s brother is, however, primarily based on summer season league, he is already a totally completely different — and far stronger — participant than he was as a rookie. I count on Markkanen to bounce again in a giant manner, I count on Clayton to contribute instantly and I am unable to wait to see how the returning younger gamers have developed over the summer season. Kyle Filipowski dominated summer season league, however Taylor Hendricks is my favourite younger Jazzman; with him and Bailey on the court docket, the Jazz are going to be a lot extra athletic (and enjoyable!) than they’ve ever been.
Jazz skeptic: I like the thought of Hendricks — a 3-and-D man who’s lengthy and athletic sufficient to protect nearly anyone — however he missed nearly all of final season and spent a superb portion of his rookie 12 months within the G League. I recommend you retain your expectations modest for each him and Bailey, the latter of whom ought to clearly be seen as a long-term undertaking. In truth, the primary cause I am down on the Jazz rebuild is that, the one time they dedicated to the tank, the Basketball Gods punished them. Ainge took a giant swing on Bailey, and I believe it is perhaps an enormous whiff. The man has among the worst shot choice I’ve ever seen, his ballhandling is suspect, his passing instincts are horrible, his lack of upper-body power presents quite a few issues and he would not compete nicely on protection. If Hardy’s employees can flip him right into a successful participant, they seem to be a bunch of miracle staff. (Additionally, are you certain you need to argue that final 12 months’s Jazz performed exhausting? My favourite quote of the entire season was Hardy describing a 50-point loss towards Dallas: “That was a fully horrendous efficiency from begin to end. That was a masterpiece of dogshit.”)
Jazz believer: That was one recreation! He additionally mentioned, “I have not been disenchanted in our staff fairly often this 12 months,” however I assume you need to have missed that a part of the quote. Additionally, Bailey is barely even 19 years outdated! I keep in mind individuals nitpicking Jayson Tatum and Anthony Edwards in comparable methods after they had been draft prospects. A few of your criticisms of Rutgers Ace Bailey have benefit, however Utah Ace Bailey is not going to have the identical position. Moreover, you’ll be able to work in your ballhandling, your power and your decision-making. His unbelievable shot-making, his excessive launch level, his confidence and his athleticism are all issues you’ll be able to’t educate. Most star scorers have shortcomings on protection at his age, and most cannot fly round and block pictures as a assist defender the best way that he can. In a manner, the Jazz are fortunate that Bailey wasn’t extra of an entire participant in faculty. If he had been, there may be completely no manner they might have had an opportunity to land somebody this proficient at No. 5.
Jazz skeptic: All I am saying is I would like my franchise cornerstones to do the identical factor that Ainge has pledged to do as staff president: Make “plenty of good selections again and again and over.” I’ve seen nothing that implies Bailey is that type of participant, and, to place it kindly, the jury continues to be out on plenty of the selections that the Jazz’s entrance workplace made earlier than Ainge’s arrival. Going ahead, I’ve a number of very primary questions on their future: What are the probabilities that one among Keyonte George, Isaiah Collier or Clayton will develop into a starting-caliber guard? Why is Jusuf Nurkić right here? And the way rather more of that is Markkanen prepared to take?
