Final week I wrote that the Massive 12 felt like a one-bid league, and whereas the convention did not do a complete lot to vary that notion this weekend, the ACC might have come to its rescue. As a result of whereas I am unsure the Massive 12 can get a couple of in (particularly with its defending champion shedding to the worst workforce within the SEC final yr), I am rattling close to sure the ACC has no hope of getting greater than two.

Sarcastically, the ACC workforce that may get probably the most consideration for its efficiency this week will likely be one that did not lose. We simply thought it may be for some time in opposition to a workforce it should not. However, no, No. 8 Clemson was capable of keep away from an 0-2 begin to the season by overcoming an early 16-0 deficit to Troy to win 27-16. And Clemson trying totally mediocre was one of many ACC’s excessive factors this week.

The ACC performed 5 nonconference video games in opposition to Energy 4 opponents in Week 2, and it misplaced all 5 of them. Duke misplaced at house by 26 to No. 12 Illinois. No. 17 SMU blew a 14-point lead with 8:30 left to play within the recreation to lose in time beyond regulation to Baylor 48-45.

Boston School fell in time beyond regulation as properly, shedding at Michigan State 42-40. Virginia Tech was outscored 34-0 by Vanderbilt within the second half to lose at house 44-20. Then, Stanford completed Saturday with a 27-3 loss to BYU.

By the point the mud settled, the ACC discovered itself with a 3-9 report in opposition to Energy 4 opponents to begin the season. Sure, a kind of wins is in opposition to Alabama, but it surely got here from considered one of solely two ACC groups that presently really feel able to reaching the School Soccer Playoff in No. 14 Florida State.

School soccer grades: Ohio State earns ‘A’ mark, LSU will get ‘D’ for lackluster effort in Week 2 report card

David Cobb

The Seminoles took the weekend off, beating East Texas A&M 77-3. No. 5 Miami had the same strategy and adopted up its Notre Dame win by beating Bethune-Cookman 45-3.

Oh, and I have not even talked about the nonconference video games in opposition to non-Energy 4 competitors. Friday evening noticed Louisville battle to place away James Madison earlier than successful 28-14, and on Saturday, Syracuse needed to stage a comeback to drive time beyond regulation in opposition to UConn earlier than escaping with a 27-20 win that also had Syracuse coach Fran Brown forcing his workforce to run sprints on the sector afterward.

However, the excellent news is Invoice Belichick obtained his first win! Yep, the Tar Heels put up 20 factors on Charlotte in a win that may absolutely transfer the needle within the ACC’s favor.

Significantly, we’re solely two weeks into the season, however Florida State and Miami really feel like the one legit contenders for spots. Sure, there’s all the time the chance Clemson will get its act collectively and finishes sturdy. It would not be the primary time it has occurred. The issue is, if Clemson does determine it out, it’ll possible come on the expense of Florida State, whom the Tigers play at house in November. It is also potential the Tigers end 10-2 with losses to LSU and Florida State, however wins over South Carolina and SMU show spectacular sufficient to the committee. However, as we’ll get into later, I do not know {that a} 10-2 report will likely be a assure for at-large groups this yr simply because it felt like one final yr.

Additionally, Clemson has seemed mediocre by two video games, and three of its subsequent 4 are on the street. This all could also be a moot level sooner reasonably than later.

Not so quick, Massive 12

I used to be not a preferred particular person in Massive 12 nation final week for what I wrote, and for a short time on Saturday morning, it seemed like I might be consuming loads of crow this week. No. 16 Iowa State did not play properly, but it surely performed properly sufficient in crunch time and beat Iowa 16-13. Baylor overcame a 14-point deficit to beat No. 17 SMU 48-45.

The Massive 12 was again! Till it wasn’t. After beginning the day 2-0 in opposition to Energy 4 competitors, the league had a horrible afternoon. Kansas blew a 21-6 lead over Missouri to lose 42-31. Oklahoma State had unspeakable atrocities dedicated in opposition to it in a 69-3 (yep) loss to No. 6 Oregon. Then the league’s defending champion, No. 12 Arizona State, fell to Mississippi State 24-20 when it blitzed late and paid the value.

Making issues worse, West Virginia went on the street and misplaced to Ohio. Not Ohio State. Ohio, from the MAC. A positive MAC program to make certain (some have known as it a wagon), however a MAC program all the identical. Then, to actually twist the knife, Kansas State misplaced 24-21 at house to Military.

BYU’s win over Stanford to complete the evening would not present a lot reduction. Now, there are plenty of methods to take a look at this. You’ll be able to level to the Massive 12’s 5-3 report in opposition to the ACC and Massive Ten, however the wins have come in opposition to UCLA, North Carolina, Iowa, SMU and Stanford. Of these 5 groups, what number of are you assured will make a bowl primarily based on what you have seen to date?

The place the priority lies is that, primarily based on what we’re seeing thus far, it is going to be the SEC you are battling for at-large spots, and also you’re presently 0-3 in opposition to them.

It nonetheless feels just like the Massive 12 should thread a needle of getting a 10-2 workforce beat an 11-1 or 12-0 workforce within the Massive 12 Championship Recreation to get two in. It is potential! Nonetheless, it is unlikely. 

The SEC has a powerful center class

The highest of the league might need some cracks. We have already seen No. 21 Alabama lose, and No. 4 Georgia did not look too spectacular in a 28-6 win over Austin Peay. No. 7 Texas obtained on the board with a 38-7 win over San Jose State however seemed shaky early there as properly.

The center class of the league, although, the groups that might be playoff contenders however aren’t assumed contenders, have seemed very sturdy by two weeks. It is not merely that the SEC has picked up eight P4 wins already, it is that it is groups like Auburn, Oklahoma, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Mississippi State selecting up 5 of them.

Missouri has gone 21-5 the final two seasons however entered the weekend as considered one of solely six SEC groups not within the AP Prime 25. And I agreed with the evaluation! I had critical questions concerning the Tigers contemplating all they misplaced on offense from final yr, however I’ve reconsidered my earlier place. After watching Beau Pribula tear Kansas aside together with his passing on Saturday, and the potent speeding assault that goes with it, it is a Mizzou workforce with the expertise, teaching and schedule to make a critical run at a visit to Atlanta and a potential playoff bid.

Then there’s No. 18 Oklahoma, which went 7-5 final yr however seems a lot stronger up to now and knocked off No. 15 Michigan 24-13 within the weekend’s marquee matchup. Whereas I’ve issues concerning the sustainability of operating John Mateer 20 occasions per recreation in SEC play, there isn’t any query this Sooners workforce seems extra harmful than final yr’s workforce.

We might see the league cannibalize itself in convention play to the purpose the place it hurts playoff hopes too badly, however my eyes inform me we’re getting not less than 4 SEC groups within the discipline this yr. We might get 5 if the schedule performs out accurately for the league.

South Florida is your Group of Six frontrunner

OK, so not each member of the SEC’s center class has seemed nice. Because of Florida, the SEC presently has as many losses to the American because it does the ACC and Massive 12 mixed.

The South Florida Bulls are able to be America’s darling! After a surprising 34-7 win over Boise State final week, the Bulls took down No. 13 Florida 18-16 in The Swamp. They’re 2-0, and you can also make the argument that there is not a workforce with a greater 1-2 punch of wins than the Bulls proper now. They’re actually the one workforce to play two ranked groups and beat each to begin the yr.

And subsequent week they get No. 5 Miami on the street!

After that, issues get a lot less complicated for the Bulls. Even when they lose to Miami subsequent week, they will nonetheless management their future as long as they win the American and do not lose in horrific trend to a horrible workforce. And even when they do, if it is Boise State who wins the Mountain West, the Broncos might be 11-1 to USF’s 10-2 and the committee would nonetheless respect the head-to-head win the Bulls had.

Convention USA has been eradicated

Did the league ever have a legit probability? In all probability not with out loads of assist, but it surely now not issues. This weekend noticed Liberty lose to Jacksonville State 34-24 and Western Kentucky get shellacked 45-21 by Toledo. We’re two weeks into the season and C-USA solely has one undefeated workforce remaining, and it is 2-0 New Mexico State.

I suppose it is potential the Aggies might roll by the season undefeated, together with a win over Tennessee in Knoxville, however, really, who’re we kidding? It is not potential. C-USA’s playoff hopes are useless.

Illinois strikes first

Coming into the season, it felt as if the Massive Ten had a agency prime three, and after seeing how Oregon has seemed by two video games, I am unsure agency is a powerful sufficient phrase. Probably the most fascinating race within the league might be the race for fourth place and the potential at-large bid that comes with it.

I’m not satisfied the Massive Ten will get 4 groups in, but it surely has helped its trigger with a 5-3 report in opposition to Energy 4 opponents. Michigan had a good chance to solidify its standing in opposition to Oklahoma however got here up brief.

For some time on Saturday afternoon in Durham, North Carolina, it seemed like No.12 Illinois would, too. The Illini obtained off to an especially sluggish begin, because the run recreation could not get traction and quarterback Luke Altmyer was harassed relentlessly by Duke’s cross rush. However Illinois did one thing good groups are inclined to do.

It weathered the storm and did not make errors. As a substitute, it capitalized on the errors of its opponent, and after taking a 14-13 lead into halftime, the Illini piled on within the second half, pulling away to win 45-19. This street recreation in opposition to a Duke workforce that is received not less than eight video games in every of the final three seasons was an necessary take a look at for the Illini.

It is a workforce that got here into 2025 with playoff hopes after successful 10 video games final yr, but it surely’s additionally a program that is discovered it troublesome to maintain success. No person would’ve been shocked in the event that they’d misplaced this recreation. As a substitute, they not solely received however did so emphatically.

The Illini have one other powerful street recreation awaiting in two weeks once they play Indiana, however this street win over Duke is probably the most spectacular win by any Massive Ten workforce exterior the perceived Massive Three up to now.

Week 3 vibe shifters

A look forward to the 5 video games on subsequent week’s slate almost definitely to influence the playoff race

No. 19 Texas A&M at No. 9 Notre Dame
No. 4 Georgia at No. 22 Tennessee
No. 13 Florida at No. 3 LSU
USF at No. 5 Miami
No. 8 Clemson at Georgia Tech

Fornelli’s CFP projection

1. Ohio State
2. LSU
3. Miami
4. Penn State
5. Georgia
6. Oregon
7. Notre Dame
8. Florida State
9. Iowa State
10. Texas
11. Alabama
12. USF

The unique projection has been modified and corrected by the writer after he realized he skipped Alabama and put in Indiana by mistake. He supposes that is the type of factor liable to occur when writing at 3 a.m. after watching soccer for 15 hours.