The enterprise finish of the Champions League begins now. Simply 16 groups are left within the combine with a sequence of thrilling encounters forward of us, together with a Madrid derby and the assembly between two of Europe’s type sides, Liverpool and PSG. That’s the place we start this week’s column:

1. PSG vs. Liverpool — Salah edges Dembele shootout

The tie of the spherical begins on the Parc des Princes on Wednesday evening. Paris Saint-Germain in opposition to Liverpool could lack the shut quarters enmity of the Madrid derby or the intriguing familiarity that comes with Bayern Munich in opposition to Bayer Leverkusen. It does, nevertheless, provide up two of the three or 4 finest forwards on the planet on present type. This column has gone to nice lengths to have fun the excellence of Mohamed Salah in latest weeks and admittedly there’s little extra to debate. On the proof of this season he’s by far and away the frontrunner for the Ballon d’Or, is monitoring in the direction of most likely the best particular person marketing campaign in Premier League historical past and has proven no proof of shying away from the massive video games.

Is Mohamed Salah having one of the best season in Premier League historical past? Liverpool’s celebrity is smashing information

James Benge

Salah is a identified commodity at this stage. Ousmane Dembele, enjoying as he’s for PSG, is somewhat more durable to get a learn on. What is evident from the outset is that his output is downright gorgeous. For the reason that flip of the 12 months there is likely to be no larger accumulator of targets in Europe’s high 5 leagues, 17 of the 25 he has scored in league, cup and Europe coming within the calendar 12 months 2025. More and more, however not completely, used as a middle ahead by Luis Enrique, Dembele is taking the abilities he acquired over a number of years as an elite extensive man and making use of them nearer to objective.

He’ll nonetheless run at defenders however as a substitute of flying to the byline in the hunt for the help he’ll drive right into a scoring place as he did twice within the second leg win over Brest. The targets he used to supply for others, the low drive throughout the field to be turned in on the again submit, at the moment are those he’s scoring.

Dembele has tailored to a brand new position whereas taking what he’s finest at with him. Unsurprisingly his touches per 90 are down round 20 % when he leads the road, versus enjoying without any consideration winger, however he has discovered methods to facilitate, slipping into deeper and wider positions as one thing of a false 9. He makes as many passes within the last third per 100 touches as a striker and there has solely been a slight downturn within the possibilities he creates for others. Naturally, he isn’t taking opponents on as ceaselessly as when he hugged the touchline, however five-plus dribbles at an opponent can be a fairly heady mark for many wingers anyway.

The largest change, after all, has are available entrance of objective. His potential to get in prime scoring positions is sort of outstanding. Taking part in as a middle ahead in Ligue 1 matches, Dembele averages 4.79 photographs per 90 minutes, a quantity that’s all of the extra spectacular if you uncover simply how good these efforts are. 

The non-penalty anticipated targets (npxG) per shot is is a fairly ludicrous 0.283. Throughout Europe’s high 5 leagues, the one participant with 200+ minutes main the road who take higher photographs on common is Emanuel Emegha of Strasbourg. A number of the better of one of the best middle forwards within the recreation — Robert Lewandowski, Erling Haaland, Alexander Isak — hover across the 0.2 npxG per shot mark. Dembele is nicely forward, even when the pattern dimension continues to be small.

A person who Xavi as soon as mentioned may very well be “one of the best participant on the planet” seems to be residing as much as the good expectations which have adopted him since he broke into the Rennes aspect as a 17-year-old, not to mention when Barcelona dropped 9 figures for him inside three years of his senior debut. He may also have a case to argue that he has fulfilled Xavi’s prediction. May, nevertheless, is the operative phrase.

There merely haven’t been sufficient alternatives to see if this explicit Dembele seems like probably the greatest strikers in Europe when he comes up in opposition to an elite stage protection. It will be unfair to overstate the deficiencies of Ligue 1 when all 4 of their representatives reached on the the Champions League knockout playoffs. Brest and Monaco, nevertheless, aren’t in a position to throw Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate at Dembele. Nor had been midtable VfB Stuttgart and a Manchester Metropolis aspect within the depths.

Within the subsequent 10 days Dembele completely might show himself to be probably the greatest on the market. Given the provision strains behind and round him, it’s completely believable that he may put Liverpool to the sword and completely change the complete outlook of the Champions League. It’s simply that the proof base for Salah doing the identical is that little bit stronger. Whoever emerges on high in each the person battles and the broader conflict between two of Europe’s excellent sides, that is certain to be probably the greatest ties of the spherical.

2. Actual Madrid vs. Atletico Madrid — Bellingham’s absence hinders hosts

One other Champions League tie, extra choice complications for Actual Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti. Defensive numbers might need been boosted by the return of David Alaba and Antonio Rudiger, however the price of getting a number of middle backs within the combine is to lose our bodies in midfield for the primary leg of the Madrid derby. Federico Valverde would most likely be wanted at proper again anyway, however his involvement is unsure with a muscular concern. Then there can be no Dani Ceballos, so spectacular within the wins over Manchester Metropolis, however sidelined for a lot of the remainder of this season with a knee harm.

Certainly although the participant Madrid will miss essentially the most within the first leg is Jude Bellingham. He could have made extra headlines for his language than his late targets this season however it’s virtually as a result of the England worldwide is not scoring like he was in 2023-24 that he seems so spectacular. With out the slightest grumble, Bellingham has taken on probably the most essential roles on this workforce. With the ball at his toes he has taken on a larger position in ball development and carrying, his photographs solely truly fizzling out considerably whilst he has lopped practically 50% from his touches within the field.

Most important have been the modifications out of possession. Throughout league, cup and Europe, nobody in Madrid colours has made extra tackles than Bellingham, whose interceptions are up nicely over 15 % per 90 minutes. The identical is true of his clearances and his tackles and although his f-bombs could also be on the rise he’s fouling extra sometimes too. By way of who’s on the pitch at anyone time, Kylian Mbappe has successfully changed Toni Kroos from final season’s Madrid aspect. That might have been an actual drawback for Ancelotti if Bellingham had remained the type of attacking quantity 10 he was final season. Irrespective of, Bellingham has tailored to the workforce’s wants as a extra progressive, harmful drive.

Chatting with the Champions League Right now crew after Madrid’s 3-2 win on the Etihad Stadium, Bellingham made clear that he is keen to adapt. “I am not likely certain [what my preferred position is],” he mentioned. “It form of will depend on the way in which the workforce arrange. Right here, defending as a left midfielder rolling inside is sweet. You could have the liberty when Vini[cius Junior] goes extensive as nicely. It would not actually matter, I attempt to give what I can in no matter place.”

Bellingham is relatively underplaying his influence. Getting one of the best out of Mbappe and Vinicius this season has required Ancelotti to shift to a 4-4-2, at the least out of possession, that sees his No.5 defend the left flank and accomplish that with gusto. His late objective within the first leg in opposition to Metropolis might need been the defining second. Nevertheless, a Madrid efficiency that was higher than two targets conceded was typified by these kinds of industrious moments from Bellingham.

Madrid’s left midfielder sees the go from Ruben Dias to Kevin De Bruyne earlier than it is performed, meets his opponent with the fitting physique form to indicate the go backwards and meets him within the duel. Bellingham may not win it, however the stress he is utilized means Vinicius can sense an opportunity at a turnover. De Bruyne has no selection however besides the ball again to his goalkeeper. There’s nothing recreation altering about this second, however the stars who mild up the Santiago Bernabeu aren’t at all times so keen to step out of the limelight.

It won’t be straightforward to manage with out Bellingham on Tuesday evening. Luka Modric appears primed to step in to the XI, he can provide the development in abundance, however may wrestle on the defensive finish. Vice versa for Eduardo Camavinga. Bellingham can be missed. Not less than it is going to solely be for one recreation.

3. PSV vs. Arsenal — Odegaard tries to drive the difficulty

In some ways the latest travails of Arsenal and Martin Odegaard are about what you’d count on for a workforce lacking its 4 first selection forwards. They can not put the ball within the internet and their main creator doesn’t appear to be discovering issues as straightforward as he does when surrounded by Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz. With their final hope of silverware on the road, Arsenal want somebody to step up. Proper now it seems like Captain Odegaard isn’t prepared for that. 5 assists and three targets in all competitions is a paltry return for a participant who had 18 objective involvements within the Premier League alone final season, 22 the 12 months earlier than.

And but, the curious factor is that the Odegaard of 2024-25 isn’t that far faraway from final 12 months’s mannequin, as Mikel Arteta famous a number of weeks in the past. “His numbers are very comparable by way of what we count on and the anticipated targets and areas that he is hitting. Perhaps the effectivity has dropped somewhat.”

That is about it actually. This season there was the type of drop off that may actually be defined within the easiest phrases: he has been injured a bit and his finest workforce mates have not been round him.

Many of the extra complicated arguments do not provide such a convincing rationalization. For all that it appears like Odegaard is dropping deeper to attempt to manipulate play, he averages extra last third touches this season than final. His anticipated assists are down from final season’s 0.32 to 0.26 however in 2022-23 he was hitting that second quantity. There’s nothing out of the strange in his inventive output.

Final season Odegaard averaged 0.17 npxG per 90 and certainly scored 0.17 non-penalty targets per 90. Meaning 0.14 npxG per 90, however lower than half that output in non-penalty targets. In entrance of objective at the least, the story of Odegaard’s season may simply be certainly one of a badly timed scoring stoop.

The truth is the tales of the tape for Arsenal and their captain relatively really feel like they’re one on the identical. The large level that’s too usually understated is the influence of accidents; even in his finest performances this season Odegaard appears to haven’t fairly had the identical burst that he did earlier than he went over on his ankle. Then there may be the pursuit of effectivity and safety. The No.8 is relatively just like the squad as an entire, a drop off in anticipated output that has not been fairly as pronounced because the drop off in precise photographs. 

Two years in the past Arsenal took 30.4 % of their photographs from outdoors the field, now that’s at 26.7 %. Odegaard has adopted that development, arguably reflecting his workforce’s reluctance to fly too deep into assaults earlier than they’re certain they’re defending in opposition to the opposition counter.

There is likely to be the odd signal of a change in Odegaard now that the harm disaster has actually sunk its tooth into the Arsenal frontline. In opposition to West Ham his three photographs had been notable for being the type of first time lengthy rangers that he has largely eschewed this season. Within the draw at Nottingham Forest his want to up the tempo led to him taking on extra aggressive positions and take a look at extra penetrative passing, his 75 % go completion within the last third a good means under a season common of 81.8 %. On the Metropolis Floor he ended up with a mean contact place that positioned him nicely upfront of Mikel Merino, not fairly the middle ahead given how extensive to the fitting he drifted, however a captain who was easing the burden on a workforce mate in a brand new place. 

With the caveat that Arsenal will certainly have an eye fixed on the second leg on the Emirates as the sport to be extra expansive, Odegaard will possible maintain making an attempt to drive the difficulty in Eindhoven. That’s hardly his pure recreation however it’s what his aspect want proper now.