It is Christmas, and whereas I am not Santa Claus, that won’t cease me from making an inventory and checking it twice, all to search out out who’s naughty or good.
Eight groups stay within the Faculty Soccer Playoff, and none are good. So far as followers are involved, that is a great factor. It results in extra uncertainty about how the ultimate three rounds will play out, which is what each school soccer fan ought to need.
So consider this naughty and good record as a manner of describing why groups may win all of it or what may trigger them to return up quick of their objective of profitable the nationwide championship.
Good: Balanced offense
Oregon is sweet at the whole lot and might beat you in a number of methods. It runs the ball on 51.5% of its performs, which ranks sixty fifth nationally however solely sixth among the many eight remaining groups (a reminder to run the dang ball). What issues greater than how usually the Geese run is how efficient they’re at it. The offense ranks ninth nationally in EPA per dropback and seventeenth in EPA per rush. Much more spectacular, they’re seventh in passing success charge and fourth in speeding success charge. As a complete, this offense is not tremendous explosive, but it surely’s simply so good at staying forward of schedule and doing it on the bottom and within the air.
Naughty: The entrance seven
Hear, Oregon’s entrance seven, in comparison with virtually each different crew within the nation, is phenomenal. Nevertheless, in comparison with a few of its playoff brethren, this is not an elite unit. Whereas the general numbers are excellent, there are legit considerations. On the season, Oregon’s protection is permitting just one.56 factors per possession (nineteenth nationally) with a hit charge of 62.6% (fifteenth). The issue is these numbers fall off a cliff in Oregon’s three video games in opposition to playoff competitors. The Geese have already performed Boise State, Ohio State and Penn State, and in these video games, they allowed 2.68 factors per drive and had a hit charge of 55.8%. Ashton Jeanty rushed for 192 yards in opposition to this protection. Ohio State went for 467 yards, which was six fewer than it had in opposition to Tennessee within the first spherical. Penn State rushed for 292 yards and eight.34 yards per try. Additional complicating issues, Oregon’s pressure-to-blitz ratio — are you able to get strain with out blitzing, basically — of 1.54 ranks ninth nationally, however in those self same three video games, it plummeted to 0.92.
Good: Getting residence with 4
The Bulldogs have been a irritating crew all season as a result of it not often seems like they’re taking part in at their finest degree. However the one factor they have been persistently good at this season is producing a go rush with out bringing additional rushers. Georgia’s protection has a 35.7% strain charge and an 8.2% sack charge (each twenty fifth), however whereas these aren’t elite numbers, their pressure-to-blitz ratio of 1.48 ranks ninth nationally and third amongst remaining CFP groups. The issue is when Georgia does not get residence. The -0.05 EPA per dropback allowed on protection ranks 56th.
Naughty: Lack of massive performs
The Georgia offense has handled myriad accidents this 12 months, which has restricted what they’re capable of do offensively, and the newest harm to QB Carson Beck is not going to assist. So, likelihood is the least explosive offense remaining within the area will not enhance. Georgia ranks 73rd in general explosive play charge (12.3%) and an astounding 114th in explosive rush charge (7.8%). The Dawgs do rank forty sixth in passing explosiveness (16.0%), however will that enhance with Gunner Stockton?
3. Boise State
Good: Ashton Jeanty
Hear, no crew will get this far because the byproduct of 1 participant, however the playoff crew that comes closest is Boise State. And I do not imply that as a diss on the Broncos. I imply it as a praise to Ashton Jeanty, who completed second in Heisman Trophy voting and has been a revelation all season lengthy. Jeanty has rushed for two,497 yards and 29 touchdowns this 12 months, and that features 192 yards and three touchdowns in opposition to Oregon. If the Broncos make a Cinderella run, it will be as a result of Jeanty is pulling that carriage.
Naughty: Tackling
Boise State’s general defensive numbers aren’t dangerous. The Broncos rank thirty eighth in factors per possession (1.78) and thirtieth in success charge (61.3%) however are solely 77th in explosive play charge allowed (12.19%). How is that potential? Nicely, they miss plenty of tackles. In response to TruMedia, the Broncos have a missed sort out charge of 20%, which ranks 134th within the nation. That is lifeless final.
Good: Successful shut video games
Whereas most coaches would favor profitable video games comfortably, there’s worth in being battle-tested. Successful shut video games provides groups confidence late when the strain is on, and no crew within the nation did a greater job of that than Arizona State. The Solar Devils have been 6-1 in one-score video games this season, and people six wins trailed solely the seven Syracuse picked up. For comparability’s sake, the Texas crew the Solar Devils will face this 12 months performed solely two one-score video games. If the Solar Devils hold it shut going into the fourth quarter, their expertise managing related conditions may show essential.
Naughty: Purple-zone protection
All that stated, it will be exhausting to maintain it shut if the Solar Devils do not tighten up within the crimson zone! Now, the excellent news is that this protection does an honest job of stopping drives earlier than they get there, however after they do, success is fleeting. The 4.58 factors allowed per crimson zone possession ranks one hundred and first nationally, however what’s odd is that this protection does properly in goal-to-go conditions. Critically, groups solely rating touchdowns 63.6% of the time after they have goal-to-go in opposition to the Solar Devils, which is the 18th lowest charge within the nation. If solely they might work out what to do between the 20 and 10-yard traces!
5. Texas
Good: Line of defense
I’ve caught plenty of sideways glares from Georgia followers for saying it, however Texas is the brand new Georgia in terms of defensive linemen. Final 12 months’s Longhorns line featured Byron Murphy and T’Vondre Sweat, and I used to be nervous about how the Longhorns would exchange them heading into the SEC. Nicely, this 12 months’s line is perhaps higher. Vernon Broughton and Alfred Collins have been phenomenal on the inside, whereas Trey Moore and Barryn Sorrell have dealt with the sting. Sprinkle in some Colin Simmons, Jermayne Lole, Ethan Burke and Invoice Norton, and you’ve got a deep, gifted rotation up entrance. It is an elite protection, and all of it begins up entrance for the Longhorns.
Naughty: Ball safety
Contemplating how vital turnovers are within the sport, it is stunning to see the Longhorns carry out so properly this 12 months regardless of their issues taking good care of the ball. Texas’ turnover charge of 13.1% on offense ranks a centesimal nationally, and their 23 whole turnovers on offense rank 124th. The explanation it hasn’t cratered their season is the Texas protection bails the offense out repeatedly. Texas’ point-off turnover margin per sport is 2.71, which ranks thirty third nationally.
6. Penn State
Good: First-down offense
Total, Penn State’s offense is extra excellent than nice, and a giant purpose why is the shortage of big-time playmakers on the receiver place. Penn State overcomes this by being completely unimaginable on first down. The Nittany Lions rank first nationally in success charge on first down (51.4%) and EPA per snap (0.24). The 7.4 yards per play (fifth) they decide up on first down retains this offense on schedule and retains them from being in third-and-long spots, which is the place the shortage of playmakers at WR would harm most.
Naughty: Defensive penalties
As a complete, the Penn State protection ranks tenth in success charge (63.0%) and ninth in factors allowed per drive 91.43), however think about how good they’d be in the event that they did not commit so many penalties! The Nittany Lions protection has been referred to as for 36 penalties this season, rating 116th. These penalties have value them 8.63 yards per (ninetieth) and -27.03 in EPA (one hundred and fifteenth).
Good: Successful the turnover battle
Turnovers are an incredible factor to drive on protection, but it surely’s even higher when the offense helps out and turns them into factors (or if the protection does so itself). In that facet, it is a true crew effort by the Preventing Irish. Notre Dame’s +16 turnover margin ranks second nationally, however their factors off turnover margin per sport is +7.69. To place that in perspective, just one different crew within the nation is at +7 or increased (Colorado), and solely 9 groups are above 5.0. None of these groups stay within the CFP. Arizona State is the closest to Notre Dame at +3.54, which ranks 18th.
Naughty: Third-and-long offense
In the event you’ve paid consideration to Notre Dame, this may not come as a shock. That is very a lot a speeding offense with a quarterback in Riley Leonard who is way simpler as a rusher than he’s a dropback passer. When in conditions the place Leonard must drop again to go and defenses comprehend it, the Irish battle mightily. Notre Dame’s 15.2% conversion charge on third-and-long (7 yards or extra) ranks 129th nationally. The excellent news? Solely 46.48% of Notre Dame’s third downs qualify as lengthy, however whereas that ranks 52nd nationally, it ranks seventh of the eight groups remaining within the area.
8. Ohio State
Good: Second-half changes
If you are going to get to Ohio State, you higher do it early, as a result of in the event you let Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles tinker at halftime, you are screwed. Ohio State’s level margin per sport within the second half this season is 13.00, which ranks third nationally and is one of the best of our remaining playoff groups. And that quantity is skewed a bit as a result of it is 10.00 within the third quarter alone (first nationally). By the point the fourth quarter rolls round, the Buckeyes have normally referred to as off the canine.
Naughty: Particular groups
Ohio State followers may not understand it as a result of it has improved general, however whereas Ohio State’s particular groups have been higher, they haven’t been good. After rating 112th final season in particular groups EPA, the Buckeyes have climbed all the way in which as much as a centesimal this 12 months. However, hey, it is not like particular groups miscues have value this crew within the postseason earlier than!
