The Houston Rockets have managed their rebuild about as responsibly as attainable. They’ve hoarded draft picks, and so far achieved comparatively properly with them. They’ve pursued veteran free brokers, however have at all times managed to take action with a watch on worth. They bought Dillon Brooks when his status was in tatters, and gave different free brokers like Fred VanVleet and Jock Landale group choices to maximise their very own flexibility. Most significantly, they have not rushed. Normal supervisor Rafael Stone has been fairly simple on that time. When the Jimmy Butler rumor cycle began final week, he went on SiriusXM NBA Radio to inform the world he does not intend to make a blockbuster transfer any time quickly.
“We like this group. We positively don’t intend to vary something, and I might be shocked if one thing modifications this season,” Stone mentioned. “We like the place we’re at. We need to proceed to develop our guys, full cease. Will I hearken to different groups? After all I’ll, that is my job. However once more, no, there is not any a part of me, there is not any a part of our decision-making course of that means that we’re seeking to do something massive now or within the close to time period.”
It is a noble sentiment, not precisely dissimilar to Sam Presti’s “we have now to complete our breakfast earlier than we begin appearing like we’re on the cusp of one thing,” quote from roughly a 12 months in the past. Gradual, methodical rebuilds are typically the simplest ones, and Houston noticed firsthand simply how efficient Oklahoma Metropolis’s strategy to rebuilding has been on Saturday, when the Thunder knocked the Rockets out of the NBA Cup. Oklahoma Metropolis by no means rushed. It now has most likely essentially the most envious total roster and asset outlook in basketball. The Rockets are gunning for one thing related. However Saturday’s loss, and Houston’s total NBA Cup efficiency, level towards a refined distinction that the Rockets must be cognizant of: The Thunder have an MVP candidate and they don’t.
That wasn’t the one distinction between the Rockets and Thunder on Saturday, however it was the pertinent one. Within the rock battle to finish all rock fights, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander managed to search out 32 big factors in a 111-96 victory. No Rocket even reached 20 in opposition to the Thunder. Alperen Sengun did so in opposition to the Warriors on Wednesday, however Golden State held Houston to simply 91 factors within the quarterfinal.
Once more, we’re nonetheless fairly early into this Houston rebuild. It is not truthful to attract sweeping conclusions but, and the defensive id the Rockets have cultivated goes to show extraordinarily worthwhile in the long term. However man, is scoring a slog for them, particularly within the greatest moments. Their No. 18 offensive rating is regarding, however keep in mind, Minnesota rode an analogous defense-first statistical profile to the Western Convention finals a 12 months in the past. The distinction was that Minnesota had Anthony Edwards, and will subsequently no less than maintain tempo offensively when it counted. These Timberwolves ranked sixteenth in fourth-quarter offense. These Rockets rank twenty fifth.
These are the moments wherein an offense should be judged. The Rockets are hovering round league-average on offense total, however as soon as the protection locks in, their lack of a singular, apex-level shot-creator turns into most obvious. These NBA Cup video games in opposition to the Warriors and Thunder are the closest approximations of the playoffs they will get in the course of the common season. Each video games got here in opposition to top-five offenses. Each featured a number of days of relaxation and, extra importantly, game-planning. And on each events, the Rockets struggled to fulfill the higher offensive problem.
That is to not say they by no means will. Alperen Sengun’s offensive numbers are down throughout the board this season, however he flirted with an All-Star berth a season in the past and remains to be in solely his fourth season. Circumstances aren’t doing him any favors right here. Except you are Nikola Jokic, facilities that function offensive hubs are pretty reliant on correct spacing to keep away from doubles and create chopping lanes for savy teammates. Houston ranks 18th in 3-point makes an attempt and twenty eighth in 3-point proportion.
Settling the capturing guard spot internally for the lengthy haul may remedy a few of these issues. In an ideal world, Jalen Inexperienced, who has the athleticism and shot-profile of a conventional, high-usage All-Star, would simply become that participant persistently. That hasn’t occurred but. If it will definitely does? Nice. If not? Maybe an eventual transition to Reed Sheppard, the No. 3 total decide in final 12 months’s draft and among the finest capturing prospects in latest reminiscence, might open the ground up sufficient for Sengun to completely change into the offensive centerpiece Houston wants. Possibly Sheppard finally will get there himself.
The overarching level right here is that Houston is not essentially loopy for preferring to let issues play out organically in the meanwhile. They’ve the youth and belongings to make a transfer if and when the correct one presents itself.
However these NBA Cup video games have proven us, comparatively convincingly, what these Rockets are in high-leverage moments at this level. The protection is prepared for primetime. The offense will not be. With out both vital inside progress within the very close to future or a large commerce of some kind, this group simply is not going to have the ability to rating sufficient to meaningfully contend for the 2025 championship. If the Rockets are content material to eat their breakfast earlier than enthusiastic about lunch, properly, that is not the worst consequence. But it surely’s one the Rockets have to brace for. Even when the accountable rebuilding path is the right one, it tends to come back with loads of bumps and bruises alongside the best way.
